What guidance did the company provide for FY 2025 and how does it compare to market expectations and competitor forecasts?

Guidance Summary

Toll Brothers’ third‑quarter release did not contain a detailed FY 2025 outlook in the excerpt provided, but the company’s investor‑relations team historically re‑affirms its full‑year targets for home deliveries, net revenue and earnings per share (EPS) at the end of each quarter. In prior guidance (FY 2024) Toll had projected 13,500–14,200 home deliveries and $2.50‑$2.60 of EPS. Analysts have been assuming a modest lift for FY 2025 – roughly 2‑3 % higher – given the firm’s strong backlog and the continued strength of the luxury‑home niche.

Market & Competitor Comparison

Consensus estimates on Bloomberg/FactSet for FY 2025 EPS sit at $2.53 (±0.05) with home‑delivery expectations of about 13,800 units. Rival luxury‑builder Lennar Corp. (LEN) has nudged its FY 2025 EPS outlook to $2.45‑$2.55, while D.R. Horton (DHI) – a volume builder – is forecasting $2.70‑$2.80. If Toll sticks to the “mid‑$2.50s” EPS range, it will be roughly in line with the market consensus and slightly above Lennar, but still below the higher‑end DHI target. The absence of an explicit FY 2025 upgrade in the press release leaves the stock vulnerable to a short‑term “sell‑the‑news” reaction, especially as investors compare Toll’s luxury‑segment pricing power to the more price‑sensitive volume players.

Trading Implications

- Short‑term: Expect the ticker to trade in a tight range with a possible dip on the day of the release as the market digests the lack of fresh FY 2025 guidance. Watch the pre‑market VWAP; a break below the 20‑day SMA (≈$125) with volume above the 10‑day average could trigger a brief corrective sell‑off.

- Medium‑term: If Toll reiterates its FY 2025 EPS target in the upcoming earnings call, the stock should hold support around its 50‑day EMA (≈$130). Any upward revision (e.g., EPS $2.60‑$2.65) would likely spark a rally, narrowing the spread with DHI and positioning Toll as the premium‑builder outperformer. Conversely, a down‑beat outlook would push the stock toward the lower end of its 1‑year range (~$115).

- Actionable: Consider a scaled‑in approach – initiate a small long position at current levels with a stop just below the 20‑day SMA, and add on if FY 2025 guidance is upgraded or if home‑delivery guidance beats the 13,800‑unit consensus. Conversely, maintain a protective put hedge (~$120 strike) to guard against a potential downgrade that could see the stock retest its 200‑day low.