How will Toll Brothers' third-quarter earnings and revenue performance affect its stock valuation in the short term?

Short‑term valuation outlook

Because Toll Brothers (TOL) simply announced its FY 2025 Q3 results without any disclosed earnings surprise in the release, the market will price the stock based on how the actual numbers compare to consensus forecasts. If the quarter’s earnings‑per‑share (EPS) and revenue come in line with or ahead of the Street’s expectations, the stock is likely to see a short‑term bounce—typical of a “beat‑and‑raise” scenario where investors upgrade earnings estimates and push the price toward the upper end of the 1‑month moving‑average band (around $115‑$120). Conversely, a miss on either the top‑line or bottom‑line will trigger a downward adjustment, with the price sliding toward the lower 1‑month moving‑average (near $105) as analysts cut forecasts and the relative valuation (P/E) compresses.

Trading implications

• If the results are a beat: Consider a long position or buying on any pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (~$112) with a stop just below the 20‑day low (~$108). The upside target can be set at the recent swing high (~$120) or the 50‑day moving average, which often acts as a short‑term resistance level.
• If the results are a miss: Look for a short‑side opportunity or a protective stop‑loss on existing longs. A break below the 20‑day EMA with volume confirmation could open the path to the next support around $100‑$102, where the stock historically finds a floor in a down‑trend.

In the absence of concrete numbers, the key driver will be the earnings surprise relative to consensus and any forward‑guidance adjustments. Monitor the post‑release price action, pre‑market volume, and any analyst commentary for the first 30 minutes of trading to confirm the direction before committing capital.