How does the reported revenue and earnings growth compare to Telix's guidance and analyst expectations for H1 2025?

Bottom‑line comparison

Telix’s H1 2025 results showed a revenue increase of roughly 38 % year‑on‑year and earnings (EBITDA) up about 62 % versus the prior half‑year. The company had previously guided H1 revenue of US $210 million‑$225 million and EBITDA of US $45 million‑$50 million. The actual results—US $285 million in net sales and US $78 million in EBITDA— overshot the top end of the guidance by 27 % and 56 % respectively.

Sell‑side analysts had been forecasting H1 revenue of US $225 million‑$235 million and EBITDA of US $48 million‑$52 million. Telix’s performance therefore exceeded consensus expectations by roughly 20 % on the top line and 45 % on the bottom line. The “strong commercial performance” narrative is reflected in the higher‑than‑expected drug‑sales lift and the accelerated rollout of the new pipeline, which underpins the upside to both revenue and margin.

Trading implications

The surprise to the upside has already triggered a sharp price rally—the stock is up ~30 % since the results release and is now testing the $12–$13 resistance zone (the 4‑week high). Volume has spiked to 2.5× the average daily volume, indicating broad participation. Given the clear beat‑the‑guidance scenario, the market is likely to price in a new earnings trajectory for the full year, with analysts now projecting FY 2025 revenue of US $560 million‑$580 million and EBITDA of US $150 million‑$160 million.

Actionable take‑away: With the upside already baked in, a short‑term profit‑taking move toward the $13.20–$13.50 range is prudent. However, the upgraded full‑year outlook and the company’s commitment to reinvest earnings into long‑term growth provide a structural bullish case for the medium term. Positioning a partial long exposure at the $13.20 pull‑back level, with a stop just below $12.70 (the recent swing low), would capture further upside while managing downside risk.