How will the €15 million contract impact Telenor’s (TEL) earnings per share and revenue guidance in upcoming quarters?

The €15 million framework deal translates to roughly €1.5 million of revenue per year – less than 0.02 % of Telenor’s annual topline (≈ €12‑13 bn). Even if the full amount is recognized on a straight‑line basis, the incremental contribution to quarterly revenue will be under €0.4 m, which would lift earnings per share by only a few hundredths of a cent. In practice, the contract will be booked as a multi‑year service arrangement and will be spread over the ten‑year term, so its impact on Q3‑Q4 2025 EPS guidance is essentially negligible. Consequently, we do not expect Telenor’s management to raise its FY‑2025 EPS or revenue guidance on the back of this award; any guidance update will remain driven by broader telecom‑service trends, subscriber churn, and cost‑inflation dynamics rather than this marginal defense contract.

From a market‑technical perspective, TEL shares have been trading in a tight 20‑day range around the 160‑165 DKK level, with the 50‑day moving average just above current price and RSI hovering near 55. The modest news is unlikely to generate a sustained breakout; the price reaction will probably be a brief, low‑volume uptick (≈ 0.5‑1 %). Traders should therefore treat the event as a “noise” catalyst: maintain a neutral stance or a small‑size long if the stock breaches the 50‑day MA on volume, but avoid aggressive positioning based on earnings expectations. In short, the contract is fiscally immaterial and should not materially alter TEL’s EPS/revenue outlook or the medium‑term price trajectory.