How does this defence contract compare to similar deals secured by regional competitors, and does it indicate a broader shift into the defence communications market?
Fundamentals & market context
The €15 million, ten‑year framework that Telenor Finland (KNL) just secured with the Finnish and Swedish armed forces is modest by regional standards. Thales Alenia Space and Saab, for example, have closed multi‑hundred‑million AU‑EUR contracts for secure tactical radios and satellite link‑uplinks in the same Nordic theater over the past two years. Even Ericsson’s recent €30 million Swedish‑government 5G‑private‑network deal dwarfs the Telenor order. Consequently, KNL’s win is unlikely to move the needle on Telenor’s total revenues (which are in the multi‑billion‑EUR range), but it does provide a foothold in a niche that is being “defence‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑-"—a term we’ve seen used for secure, survivable battlefield communications—becoming an increasingly attractive growth lane for telecom operators. The contract shows Telenor is converting its civilian‑mesh‑network expertise into hardened, encrypted links for the militaries, a move that mirrors a broader European trend where the telecom sector is being tapped to offset legacy defence‑vendor capacity gaps.
Technical picture & trade idea
TEL shares have been in a mild uptrend on the Oslo exchange, holding above the 200‑day SMA and testing a resistance band near €14.8. The news added a bullish catalyst—sentiment at 60 (moderately positive) and a tight‑range price action—leading to a 1‑2 % intraday bounce on 26 Aug 2025. Given the modest size of the contract, the upside from the single event is limited; a likely short‑run price spike will be followed by a consolidation pull‑back to the prevailing trend line. Therefore, a short‑term entry on a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (≈ €13.9) with a stop just above €14.5 can capture the momentum while limiting exposure if the market re‑prices the broader defence‑communications narrative. On the longer horizon, the deal validates a structural shift: telecoms are being co‑opted into the defence supply chain, suggesting that peers with similar secure‑network capabilities (e.g., Ericsson, Nokia) could see comparable contracts. A small‑cap or thematic position in a “defence communications” basket or a selective tilt toward the telecoms that are expanding into these contracts may be appropriate if the trend persists.