What potential risks or downsides could arise if the campaign fails to resonate with target demographics?
Risks to the stock if the anniversary campaign falls flat
If Chryslerâs âHarmonyâŻin Motionâ video series fails to connect with its coreâbuyer segmentsâMillennialâ and GenâZâfocused EV shoppers and the brandâloyal older premiumâtruck crowdâthe most immediate risk is a slowdown in dealerâlevel demand. The campaign is being used to justify a nearâ$150âŻmillion increase in marketing spend for the 2025â26 model year; a weak consumer response would translate into excess inventory, higher discounting, and margin compression on key profit contributors such as the Pacifica EV and the new Grand Voyager. In the nearâterm, analysts have already factored modest upside from the anniversary narrative into Stellantis (STLA) earnings estimates; a miss would force a downward revision to Q3âQ4 revenue guidance and could trigger a âsalesâcushionâ credit downgrade from S&P, pressuring the share price.
Technical and trading implications
On the chart, STLA has been trading in a tight 4â% range around the 53âday EMA (â$23.70) since the campaign announcement, with volume gradually tapering. A failureâtoâresonate scenario would likely precipitate a break below the $23.40 support line and a retest of the 200âday SMA (~$22.80). Traders could watch for a decisive close under $23.30 on higherâthanâaverage volume as a shortâentry trigger, targeting the $22.60â$22.30 zone where the recent lowâvolume âbear trapâ formed. Conversely, if early sales data or dealer sentiment shows resilience, a bounce above $24.00 would reaffirm the rally and justify a long position with a stop just below $23.40. In either case, keep the campaignâs performance metrics (socialâengagement rates, testâdrive bookings, and dealer inventory turns) on your watchlist, as they will be the leading indicators of whether the brandâcentric spend translates into sustainable topâline growth or a corrective pullâback in STLAâs valuation.