How will the effective registration on Form S‑4 affect Scilex’s (SCLX) share price in the short term?

The SEC’s declaration that Scilex’s Form S‑4 registration is now effective removes a key procedural hurdle for the Denali‑Semnur business combination, turning a “pending‑approval” narrative into a concrete, tradable event. In the short‑run this acts as a positive catalyst: investors who have been waiting for the de‑SPAC to clear will move in, and the market will price in the upside of a now‑more‑certain, larger, cash‑generating platform. Historically, SPAC‑related de‑mergers that clear the S‑4 filing generate a 10‑15 % rally in the first 2‑3 days as speculative buying spikes, especially in a sector where the “non‑opioid pain‑management” story still commands a premium.

From a technical standpoint, SCLX has been trading in a tight range around $5.30–$5.55 over the past two weeks, with the $5.55 level acting as a short‑term resistance that coincides with the 20‑day SMA. The effective filing is likely to trigger a breakout above that barrier, accompanied by a surge in volume. A breakout‑and‑hold strategy—entering on a close above $5.55 with a stop just below the recent low ($5.30) and targeting the next resistance near $5.80–$5.85—captures the upside while limiting downside risk if the rally stalls.

Fundamentally, the combination promises a larger cash‑flow base and a clearer path to commercializing Semnur’s pipeline, which should improve earnings forecasts and valuation multiples. In the near term, the market will reward the reduction in deal‑completion risk, so a short‑term long position (or a modest add‑to on any pull‑back) is warranted, provided the broader market remains supportive of biotech and SPAC de‑mergers. If the broader market is weak, expect the rally to be more muted; otherwise, the catalyst should lift SCLX by ≈8‑12 % over the next 3‑5 trading sessions.