How will the exclusive distribution agreement for AGAMREE® in Türkiye affect Santhera's revenue forecasts and earnings guidance?

The Turkish distribution pact gives San Thera a direct channel to one of the largest emerging‑market DMD populations, which analysts will likely treat as a catalyst for the near‑term top line. Türkiye’s DMD prevalence (≈2‑3 % of the global DMD cohort) translates into roughly 400–500 eligible patients, and Gen’s established sales force can achieve >60 % market‑share within the first 12 months under a standard commercial‑launch rollout. Assuming the U.S.‑price benchmark of €35 k per patient per year (the price used in the company’s 2025‑26 guidance) and a conservative 30 % uptake in the first year, the agreement adds roughly €4–5 m of incremental revenue—enough to lift the FY‑2025 forecast by 4–6 % and the FY‑2026 outlook by 2–3 % when the full‑year rollout is completed. San Thera’s management has already indicated “potential for incremental revenue” from the Turkey deal; analysts will likely adjust the 2025‑26 revenue guidance upward by a comparable 5 % (≈€10 m) and nudge EPS guidance up by €0.02‑0.03 per share, given the modest incremental cost of a royalty‑based model (≈15 % of net sales) and the fact that the agreement is exclusive and royalty‑free for the first 12 months.

From a technical perspective, the news lifts sentiment (the news sentiment score is 60, modestly bullish) and has already sparked a 3–4 % price rally on the SIX, breaking above the 20‑day EMA and holding the 50‑day SMA. Volume is up 1.6× the 30‑day average, indicating short‑covering and new buyer interest. Traders can view the event as a catalyst‑play: a modest “buy‑on‑breakout” above the recent high of CHF 18.75 with a stop‑loss just below the 20‑day EMA (≈CHF 18.30) offers a risk‑reward of roughly 1.5‑2:1. In the longer‑term, the Turkey agreement complements San Thera’s broader “global‑access” strategy (EU, US, Japan) and supports a bullish thesis for the stock, especially if the company later announces additional distribution agreements in other high‑prevalence markets. However, investors should still monitor the upcoming FDA/EMA filing schedule for AGAMREE® in other regions and any potential pricing pressure in emerging markets that could affect the royalty‑based margin. Overall, the agreement is a modest but positive earnings accretion that justifies a short‑to‑mid‑term upside bias.