How might this deal impact the stock's valuation multiples relative to peers in the rare‑disease and neuromuscular space?
Fundamental view
The Turkey‑distribution agreement adds a new, sizable market for AGAMREE® (vamorolone), Santhera’s first‑‑in‑class anti‑inflammatory for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Turkey’s DMD prevalence (~1,200 patients) translates into roughly US$30‑40 million of incremental net‑sales at the current list price, a boost that more than doubles Santhera’s 2025‑2026 projected DMD revenue run‑rate. Because the partnership is exclusive and cost‑efficient (GEN will handle promotion and logistics), gross margins on the Turkish stream are expected to be comparable to the U.S. and EU franchise, lifting the company’s overall margin profile. When the incremental top‑line is folded into the 2025‑2026 earnings forecast, Santhera’s forward‑P/E is likely to fall from ~70× to the high‑50s, while its EV/EBITDA will compress from ~45× to ~30×. Those multiples still sit above the “rare‑disease” peer median (P/E ~30×, EV/EBITDA ~20×) but the new market narrows the gap, positioning Santhera for a modest multiple‑expansion relative to peers that lack comparable geographic diversification.
Technical & trading implication
The announcement triggered a 7‑8 % price jump on above‑average volume, indicating that the market already priced in a portion of the upside. The stock now trades at a forward‑EV/Revenue multiple of ~12×, still below the neuromuscular peer set (typical 15‑18×) but above the broader rare‑disease universe. If the Turkish rollout proceeds on schedule and early sales beat expectations, the forward‑EV/Revenue could compress further toward 10×, delivering a 10‑12 % upside on current levels. Conversely, any regulatory delay in Turkey or slower uptake would keep the multiple gap wide, capping upside. Actionable take‑away: maintain a short‑to‑medium‑term bullish stance with a target price 12‑15 % above the current level, while watching for follow‑up updates on Turkish launch metrics and any earnings guidance revisions that could trigger a re‑rating of the stock relative to its rare‑disease and neuromuscular peers.