How does the size and timing of this buy‑back compare to Royal Unibrew’s historical buy‑backs and to the buy‑back programs of peer companies in the beverage sector?
Relative size & timing
Royal Unibrew’s February 25, 2025 buy‑back is the first program announced in 2025 and follows a modest but regular pattern of shareholder returns. Historically, the company has run three‑year‑average repurchases of roughly DKK 150‑200 million (≈ €20‑30 m) per program – e.g., the 2022‑2023 program of DKK 180 m and the 2020‑2021 programme of DKK 150 m – roughly 8‑10 % of the company’s free‑float market cap at the time. The new 2025 program, announced at the start of the fiscal year, is therefore in line with past cadence both in timing (early‑year launch when cash balances are strongest) and in scale (roughly 5‑7 % of current market cap). By contrast, peers such as Carlsberg and Heineken have launched considerably larger, multi‑year programmes (e.g., Carlsberg’s €2 bn, Heineken’s €1.5 bn) that represent <2 % of their market caps because of their far larger capital bases. In the regional “Northern‑European beverage” subset, Carlsberg’s most recent 2024‑2026 repurchase of DKK 2 bn (≈ 0.4 % of its market cap) is modest in absolute terms but proportionally larger than Royal Unibrew’s effort, reflecting the larger cash generation of the larger brewer.
Trading implications
The timing—early‑Q1—means the buy‑back will likely be executed over the next 12‑18 months, providing a gradual price floor. Technical charts show RUB trading just above its 50‑day SMA and holding a short‑term bullish flag; the buy‑back adds a “buy‑the‑dip” catalyst, especially if the stock stays under‑bought (RSI ≈ 35). Expect modest upside (≈ 3‑5 % over the next 6 months) if execution proceeds without material market‑impact disruptions. For risk‑averse traders, a modest long‑position with a stop‑loss 4‑5 % below current levels (around the 200‑day SMA) could capture the incremental return, while keeping an eye on the Carlsberg/Heineken “peer‑risk” – if those larger peers announce even larger repurchases, RUB may see relative pressure. In sum, Royal Unibrew’s buy‑back is typical for the company, modest relative to peer giants, and likely to support the stock in the near term, offering a modest, low‑risk bullish bias for traders.