What is the expected effect on RSKD stock price volatility around the earnings release and conference call?

Short answer:

The announcement that Riskified (RSKD) will release its Q2‑2025 results before the market opens on Monday, August 18, 2025, will almost certainly increase short‑term price volatility around the earnings release and the accompanying conference call. You can reasonably expect:

• Higher intraday trading volume in the pre‑market and early‑morning session (∼8:30 a.m. ET) as investors rush to digest the numbers.
  
• Higher implied‑volatility (IV) premiums on RSKD options (particularly the 0‑30‑day expirations) as market makers re‑price the risk of a surprise outcome.
  
• A price swing that, historically for a small‑cap tech/fin‑tech player with a market‑cap in the low‑billions range, often falls in the 4‑10 % range (sometimes larger if the release deviates strongly from consensus expectations).
  

Below is a detailed, step‑by‑step breakdown of why this volatility will appear, what could amplify or dampen it, and how you might position yourself (or at least be prepared) around this event.

1. Why earnings‑day events generally spike volatility

2. What the market has historically done around similar releases for RSKD (historical pattern)

Bottom line: Even in the absence of a dramatic earnings surprise, the simple fact that RSKD is releasing its results before market open, and hosting a live conference call, is enough to generate a sharp, short‑term spike in the stock’s volatility profile, both in the underlying equity and in its options.

3. Potential drivers for greater volatility than the “baseline” above

4. How the volatility is likely to evolve throughout the day

1. Pre‑market (≈ 5:30 am – 8:30 am ET)

   • Fast‑moving “news‑type” trading (algos, high‑frequency traders) digest the numbers. Expect the first price jump (if any).
     
   • IV on near‑term options spikes sharply (20‑30 % increase).
     

2. Conference Call (8:30 am ET – ~9:00 am ET)

   • “Second‑wave” move if management adds nuance (e.g., guidance uplift, warning, or surprise segment).
     
   • The biggest price moves often happen within the first 20‑30 minutes while analysts parse the language (“reaffirm”, “cautious”, “pivotal”, etc.).
     

3. Opening bell (9:30 am ET – 10:30 am ET)

   • Opening price reflects immediate consensus. If the gap between the released numbers and the consensus estimate is large, the opening price can be 2‑5 % away from the previous close (higher for a beat, lower for a miss).
     
   • If the market opened “flat” but the conference call turned negative/positive, the post‑open drift often runs for 30‑45 minutes after the open.
     

4. Mid‑day (10:30 am – 3:30 pm ET)

   • With further analyst notes, sell‑side reports, and institutional order flow (e.g., buy‑side models re‑balancing portfolios), the price may settle (or continue moving) depending on how the "guidance corridor" is framed.
     
   • IV gradually tails off from the peak but remains elevated (10‑20 % higher than a non‑earnings day) for the remainder of the day.
     

5. After‑hours (3:30 pm – 8:00 pm ET)

   • After‑hours (post‑closing) volume is usually lower, but options (especially weekly and Friday‑expiration contracts) can see spikes if the “end‑of‑day” market sentiment remains extreme.
     

5. What you should watch before the release

6. Practical implications for traders / investors

6.1 For equity traders (short‑term)

6.2 For options traders

Key points for options:

• The IV boost for the next 30–45 min can be 30‑70 % above the 30‑day historical level. A strike‑adjacent call could trade 60‑120 % OTM but still have a high delta (0.5–0.7) due to steep implied‑vol smiles.
  
• After the announcement, IV typically drops 10‑30 % over the next 24 h (the typical “IV crush”) if the market perceives little surprise in the data. If a surprise happens, IV may hold or bounce higher as investors try to “re‑price” risk.
  

7. Anticipated risk/uncertainty factors

8. Bottom‑line recommendations

1️⃣ Expect higher volatility (2–3× the normal day’s standard‑deviation) on August 18, especially pre‑market and early‑morning periods.

2️⃣ Monitor the pre‑market price closely. A greater than 2 % move before the opening bell is a strong clue that the earnings/ guidance direction is clear.

3️⃣ Check the option chain for IV of the 30‑day, 7‑day, and 0‑DTE contracts. If IV spikes >30 % compared to 30‑day historical levels, consider a short‑term straddle/strangle or sell‑side vol‑crush plays if you think the results are in‑line with expectations.

4️⃣ Set risk limits: Use a trailing stop (2‑3 % for the equity; 20‑25 % for options) because price moves can be abrupt and sometimes reverse quickly after the call.

5️⃣ Observe the content of the conference call – a cautious statement (“expect head‑winds”) can cause later‑day selling even if the headline numbers look good.

Bottom line: The mere announcement that RSKD will release its Q2‑2025 earnings before market open—combined with a live, 30‑minute conference call—will naturally heighten RSKD’s intraday price volatility around the release. The volatility spike will begin in the pre‑market (8–8:30 a.m. ET), intensify during the conference call, and settle out as the market digests the guidance. Expect 4‑10 % intra‑day price moves and a 20‑50 % surge in implied volatility, with the exact magnitude determined by the magnitude of the earnings surprise, guidance outlook, and macro‑environment on the day. Adjust your trading / risk‑management strategies accordingly.