What are analysts' expectations for EPS and revenue, and how will a miss or beat affect the stock?
Answer
The pressârelease you quoted is simply an âearningsârelease headsâupâ that RiskifiedâŻLtd. (NYSE:âŻRSKD) will post its Q2âŻ2025 results on Monday,âŻAugustâŻ18âŻ2025 atâŻ8:30âŻa.m.âŻET.
It does not contain any analystsâ forecasts for earningsâperâshare (EPS) or revenue, nor does it spell out how the market historically reacts to a miss or a beat for this company.
Below is a structured response that pulls together what we can infer from the announcement, explains what information is missing, and outlines the typical ways a âmissâ or âbeatâ would be expected to move the stockâso you can frame the next steps for gathering the missing data and for interpreting the eventual results.
1. What the announcement tells us (and what it does not tell us)
| Item from the release | Details |
|---|---|
| Company | Riskified Ltd. â a leader in eâcommerce fraud and risk intelligence |
| Ticker | RSKD |
| Event | Q2âŻ2025 financial results will be released before the market opens on AugâŻ18,âŻ2025; a conference call/webcast will follow at 8:30âŻa.m.âŻET |
| Source | Business Wire (published 2025â08â05 20:15âŻUTC) |
| Category | Earnings |
What is **absent from the release**
- No consensus EPS estimate (e.g., $0.12 per share)
- No consensus revenue estimate (e.g., $120âŻmillion)
- No analyst sentiment (e.g., âneutral,â âbuy,â âsellâ)
- No historical guidance or âexpected beat/missâ ranges
Therefore, any answer that cites a specific EPS or revenue number would be speculative and not grounded in the provided text.
2. How to obtain the missing analyst expectations
- Factâset / Bloomberg / Refinitiv â Look up the âConsensus Estimatesâ for RSKDâs Q2âŻ2025 EPS and revenue.
- Broker research reports â Many sellâside analysts publish a âEarnings Previewâ a few days before the call.
- Financial news sites â YahooâŻFinance, MarketWatch, and Nasdaq often list âEarnings Estimatesâ for the next quarter.
- Companyâs Investor Relations page â Sometimes the firm posts a âWhat to Expectâ slide that includes the priorâyear Q2 numbers and the guidance range it gave in the last earnings call.
3. How a miss or beat typically influences Riskifiedâs stock
| Scenario | Typical market reaction for a highâgrowth SaaS / fraudâintelligence firm like Riskified |
|---|---|
| EPS Beat (actual > consensus) | Positive â The stock often rallies on the upside (5â15% on the day) because profitability is a key driver for highâgrowth, marginâsensitive businesses. A beat can also trigger a upâgrade of the earningsâgrowth outlook (e.g., âRevenue growth now expected to be 30% YoY instead of 25%â). |
| Revenue Beat (actual > consensus) | Positive, but the magnitude can be larger than an EPS beat if the topâline growth is the primary growth engine for the company. A strong topâline beat may also lift the forwardâlooking ARR (annual recurring revenue) guidance and push the stock higher. |
| Both EPS & Revenue Beat | Very bullish â The stock may see the strongest singleâday gains, and analysts could raise price targets and move the rating to âBuy.â |
| EPS Miss (actual < consensus) | Negative â The stock typically slides (3â12% on the day) as investors worry about margin compression or higher churn. If the miss is large, analysts may downgrade the stock or cut price targets. |
| Revenue Miss (actual < consensus) | Negative, especially for a SaaSâtype business where growth rate is a valuation driver. A revenue shortfall can trigger concerns about market share loss, slower client acquisition, or a weaker pipeline, leading to a broader sellâoff. |
| Both Miss | Strongly bearish â The stock can experience a doubleâdigit decline, and analysts may issue downgrades or sell recommendations. The company may be forced to reâissue guidance at a lower level, which can reset expectations for the rest of the year. |
Key nuance for Riskified:
- Margin profile matters. If the company can keep gross margins stable while scaling revenue, an EPS beat is especially powerful.
- Retention / churn is a leading indicator for a fraudâintelligence platform. A miss on revenue that is driven by higher churn can be viewed more negatively than a miss caused by a temporary slowdown in new bookings.
4. What to watch for in the upcoming call (once the numbers are released)
| Metric | Why it matters for interpreting a miss/beat |
|---|---|
| Quarterly Gross Margin | Shows whether the company can sustain profitability while scaling. |
| ARR / Net New ARR | Directly ties to future revenue visibility. |
| Client churn & expansion rates | A beat in revenue with expanding existing accounts can be more reassuring than a beat driven solely by new logos. |
| Guidance for FYâŻ2025 | Analysts will reâprice the stock based on forwardâlooking guidance, not just the quarterâs results. |
| Operating expense trends (R&D, Sales & Marketing) | If expenses are rising faster than revenue, the EPS beat may be muted. |
| Cash burn & runway | A miss that still leaves the company with a solid cash position may limit downside. |
5. Bottomâline takeâaway for you
- From the current press release alone: There are no disclosed analyst EPS or revenue expectations, and therefore we cannot state a concrete âbeatâ or âmissâ threshold.
- To answer the question accurately: Youâll need to pull the consensus EPS and revenue estimates from a dataâprovider (e.g., Bloomberg, FactSet) or from the latest broker research.
- Once you have those numbers: Compare the actual results (when released on AugâŻ18) to the consensus.
- If actualâŻ>âŻconsensus â âbeatâ â likely stock rally (size depends on magnitude and whether itâs EPS, revenue, or both).
- If actualâŻ<âŻconsensus â âmissâ â likely stock decline (again, magnitude depends on how far off the estimates are and the broader market context).
- If actualâŻ>âŻconsensus â âbeatâ â likely stock rally (size depends on magnitude and whether itâs EPS, revenue, or both).
Action plan:
1. Retrieve the consensus EPS & revenue estimates for RSKD Q2âŻ2025 (e.g., via Bloomberg).
2. Monitor the live earnings release on AugâŻ18 (company webcast, press release).
3. Calculate the % difference between actual and consensus for each metric.
4. Interpret the market reaction using the âmiss/beatâ impact table above, while also listening for any forwardâlooking guidance that could shift the longerâterm outlook.
When the numbers are out, youâll be able to plug them into the framework provided here and gauge precisely how a miss or a beat is likely to move Riskifiedâs stock.