How will the Idemitsu partnership impact Rimini Street's near‑term revenue and earnings guidance?

The Idemitsu partnership adds a marquee, multi‑year ERP‑support contract to Rimini Street’s pipeline. Idemitsu is a large, globally‑distributed enterprise that will run its core SAP ECC 6.0 environment on Rimini’s platform, meaning the deal will generate recurring subscription and services revenue across several fiscal quarters rather than a one‑off installation fee. Management has historically shown that a single enterprise‑level client of this size lifts annualized ARR by roughly 5‑8 %, and because the contract is positioned as a “long‑term, strategic” engagement, a significant portion will be booked as upfront implementation services in Q4 and then transition to higher‑margin subscription revenue in Q1‑Q2. Consequently, we should expect a modest but meaningful upward revision to near‑term revenue guidance—likely on the order of 4‑6 % versus the prior outlook—and a comparable improvement in earnings per share, given Rimini’s gross margins (≈55‑60 %) on support contracts and limited incremental SG&A.

From a trading standpoint, the market has already priced in a neutral sentiment (60 % positive), but the concrete client win provides a catalyst for a short‑term upside. The stock is currently trading near its 20‑day moving average with bullish momentum on the MACD, and the earnings‑growth expectation dovetails with a breakout above the $7.50 resistance level. Investors should look for an earnings‑release catalyst in the next 6‑8 weeks—if management formally raises its Q4‑FY24 guidance, the stock could capture a 12‑15 % rally. Conversely, any delay in implementation or lower‑than‑expected service utilization could temper the upside, so a tight stop‑loss just below the 200‑day SMA (~$6.80) would protect against downside risk. In short, the Idemitsu deal is likely to lift Rimini’s near‑term revenue and EPS guidance modestly and provides a bullish short‑term trading bias.