Does this deal indicate a broader shift toward third‑party SAP support that could affect competitors like SAP, IBM, or other managed‑services providers?

Market context – a growing appetite for “outside‑SAP” support

Idemitsu’s move is the latest high‑profile endorsement of Rimini Street’s third‑party support model for SAP ECC 6.0. Over the past 12‑18 months a handful of large, cost‑‑conscious enterprises in APAC and Europe have announced similar switches, citing three common drivers: (1) mounting licence‑maintenance fees on legacy SAP “on‑prem” suites, (2) the need for faster, lower‑cost custom enhancements that SAP’s own support‑contract model restricts, and (3) the urgency to free internal resources for a subsequent migration to S/4HANA or a cloud‑first ERP strategy. The Idemitsu deal therefore reflects—not a one‑off transaction—but a tangible acceleration of a broader migration trend toward independent SAP support providers.

Competitive impact on SAP, IBM and other managed‑services players

SAP’s core software‑licensing revenue remains robust (≈ 10 % YoY growth in FY‑24) because new “intelligent‑ERP” licences still dominate. However, the ancillary support‑services business—the “maintenance” margin layer that traditionally sits at 20‑25 % of licence revenue—is being eroded as more Tier‑1 customers adopt third‑party alternatives. Rimini Street’s market‑share, now ≈ 3 % of SAP’s global support spend, is still modest, but the pace of new contracts suggests a scaling trajectory that could force SAP to defend its pricing power or augment its own “SAP Store” and extended‑service offerings.

For IBM, which markets its own managed‑services and hybrid‑cloud contracts around SAP workloads, the shift creates a double‑edged risk: the firm stands to lose a slice of SAP‑maintenance‑related revenue, but it can also capture the migration‑execution pipeline (e.g., lift‑and‑shift to Cloud, data‑lake modernisation). The net effect will likely hinge on IBM’s ability to bundle value‑add services that pure‑support firms like Rimini cannot match.

Trading implications

* Rimini Street (NASDAQ: RMNI) – The Idemitsu partnership is a bullish catalyst. The share has been trading above its 6‑month moving average on modest volume; a breakout above the $0.95‑$1.00 resistance zone, accompanied by a 20‑day bullish RSI (≥ 60), could signal the start of a short‑‑to‑mid‑term rally (≈ 10‑12 % upside). An entry on a pull‑back toward $0.92 with a stop just below $0.85 (≈ 7 % downside) aligns with the news‑fuelled trend while preserving risk.

* SAP (NYSE: SAP) – The stock remains in a consolidating uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) on a 200‑day SMA. The third‑party support narrative is a head‑winds note rather than a breach; any downside would need to be catalyst‑driven (e.g., an earnings miss or a major client “migration‑to‑S/4HANA” announcement). A short‑term, low‑conviction “watch” position near the $260‑$265 resistance is prudent, with a stop at $250 to protect against broader market volatility.

* IBM (NYSE: IBM) – The firm is more exposed to the migration‑execution side of the shift. With the market pricing IBM at a modest 9‑10 % P/E, the current price reflects a “pause” rather than a structural decline. No immediate directional trade is warranted; however, a long‑/short‑pair on IBM versus an SAP “maintenance‑exposed” peer (e.g., Accenture) could capture the differential upside if IBM secures sizeable SAP‑migration contracts in the next 6‑12 months.

Bottom line: Idemitsu’s deal is a concrete signal of an expanding third‑party SAP support niche that will incrementally pressure SAP’s support margin and open migration‑service opportunities for incumbents like IBM. In the near term, the story is most trade‑relevant for Rimini Street’s equity, which is primed for a catalyst‑driven bounce, while SAP and IBM may see modest, longer‑term structural adjustments rather than immediate price breaks.