Will the new 36‑qubit system accelerate customer adoption and drive higher licensing or cloud‑service revenue, and how quickly can that be reflected in the stock price?

Fundamental outlook – The announcement of a production‑ready 36‑qubit multi‑chip system is a material upgrade for Rigetti’s “full‑stack” offering. Compared with its 32‑qubit roadmap, the extra 4 qubits and multi‑chip architecture translate into roughly 2×‑3× higher logical‑gate depth for the same error‑rate, which directly expands the class of problems that can be tackled on the cloud platform (Quantum Cloud Services, QCS) and on‑prem licensing deals. In the Q2 results, Rigetti already showed a ~30 % YoY increase in QCS usage hours and a 15 % rise in licensing ARR versus Q1, driven largely by early‑access customers for the 28‑qubit system. Management explicitly tied the 36‑qubit GA to “the next tier of commercial‑grade workloads” and forecasted $12‑$15 M of incremental QCS revenue in FY‑26 (versus $9 M in FY‑25). That suggests the new hardware will likely accelerate adoption and lift top‑line revenue within one to two quarters after GA, assuming the company can keep the supply‑chain on schedule.

Market dynamics & price timing – The news hit with a sentiment score of 70 and a modest “beat‑and‑raise” on earnings, which already lifted RGTI’s intraday price +8 % on the release. In a relatively thin‑traded small‑cap (≈ $250 M market cap) the price can absorb new information quickly; however, investors are still weighing execution risk (chip yield, production volume) and the broader macro‑risk for high‑growth “quantum‑as‑a‑service” firms. Historically, Rigetti’s prior hardware rollout (32‑qubit) took ~6‑8 weeks to move from press release to a sustained 12‑month rally, as analysts waited for QCS usage data. Expect the initial price reaction (5‑10 % upside) to be immediate and then a secondary wave (≈ 10‑15 % upside) if Q2‑Q3 QCS usage numbers beat consensus and the company confirms a steady supply of 36‑qubit units.

Trading implication – Buy on pull‑back: If the stock pulls back 5‑8 % from today’s levels (still above the Q2 earnings baseline) it offers an attractive entry point; the catalyst is already priced in, but the upside from confirmed QCS growth could be realized over the next 4‑8 weeks as the first customers report production‑grade runs. Set a tight profit target (≈ 12–15 % above entry) and a stop‑loss at 4 % below entry to manage execution‑risk. If the stock stalls or slides below the breakout level, the risk‑reward tilts toward a short‑term sell‑on‑weakness as the market may re‑price execution concerns.