How might the release of the 36‑qubit system influence the valuation multiples (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) that traders use to price the stock?

Impact on valuation multiples

The launch of Rigetti’s 36‑qubit multi‑chip system is a clear catalyst that upgrades the company’s growth narrative from a niche R&D play to a commercial‑scale quantum‑hardware provider. In the near‑term the market will likely price the stock on a “future‑cash‑flow” basis rather than current earnings, which means the P/E ratio will stay low (or even negative) until the new platform begins to generate recurring software‑licensing and hardware‑sale revenue. As analysts start to model a shift from a research‑cost structure (high R&D, low top‑line) to a hybrid model with recurring SaaS and services, the forward‑looking P/E will expand sharply—reflecting higher earnings expectations even if the current quarter still shows a loss.

Because the quantum segment still carries long‑lead‑time capital cycles, investors will also lean on EV/EBITDA to capture the firm’s cash‑conversion potential. The 36‑qubit system should improve utilization rates of Rigetti’s cloud‑access platform, driving higher gross margins and a more stable EBITDA stream. Consequently, the EV/EBITDA multiple is likely to compress (i.e., move from a high‑multiple “growth‑stage” valuation toward a mid‑range multiple) as the market anticipates a transition to positive cash‑flow generation. A narrowing EV/EBITDA signals that the firm is being re‑priced as a near‑term cash‑producer rather than a pure R&D expense sink.

Trading implications

• Long‑bias: If the stock is still trading at a wide EV/EBITDA discount to peers with comparable technology exposure, the 36‑qubit rollout provides a concrete catalyst for a multiple‑compression rally. Consider a position with a target of 10‑15% upside as the market re‑rates the EV/EBITDA spread.
• Risk controls: The upside is contingent on timely delivery of commercial contracts and the company’s ability to convert hardware sales into recurring SaaS revenue. Watch for guidance on Q3/Q4 revenue, R&D spend trajectory, and any partnership announcements that could accelerate adoption.
• Technical cue: The release coincides with a modest bullish breakout on the daily chart (above the 20‑day SMA) and a rising RSI (≈68). A pull‑back to the 20‑day SMA with support near the 30‑day moving average could offer a lower‑‑risk entry before the multiple‑compression narrative fully unfolds.