How will the sale of the data centre portfolio affect Rogers' revenue and profit margins in the short term?
Fundamental impact:
Divesting the dataâcentre portfolio will shave a modest chunk of Rogersâ topâline in the next quarter because the assets being sold generate recurring colocation and lease revenue that will now be booked to the buyer. The press release notes that Rogers will continue to sell connectivity and dataâcentre services into the facilities, so a portion of the serviceârelated cashâflow will be retained as a âserviceâonlyâ lineâitem. In practice this means a nearâterm dip in total revenue (likely 2â4âŻ% YoY on the upcoming quarterly report, based on the size of Rogersâ dataâcentre segment relative to its C$25âŻbn revenue base). However, the portfolio is capitalâintensive and historically carries a lower contribution margin than Rogersâ core wireless and wireline businesses. By offâloading the realâestateâheavy assets, Rogers will reduce depreciation, leaseâexpense and the need for ongoing capâex, which should lift operating margin by roughly 50â100 basis points in the short term, especially if the ongoing service fees are priced at a premium.
Trading implications:
The market is likely to price in the cash proceeds (expected to be a modestâtoâmoderate amount) and the âcleanâupâ of lowâmargin assets, so the stock may see a shortâterm rally as investors reward the higherâmargin focus and balanceâsheet strengthening. Watch the 20âday EMA: a break above the current $32.5 level with volume above the 10âday average would confirm bullish sentiment; a break below the $31.5 support could signal that investors are discounting the revenue loss. For riskâmanaged traders, a bullâcall spread around the $31.8â$33.0 zone could capture upside from marginâdriven earnings beat, while a tight put at $30.5 can serve as a hedge against a weakerâthanâexpected earnings result. Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings release (Q3) and any guidance updates on the retained serviceâonly revenue stream, as those will confirm the marginâimprovement narrative.