What is the reason behind the 6% YoY decline in total and organic revenue, and is it a temporary or structural issue?

Why revenue fell 6% YoY

Ralli‑ant’s 6% year‑over‑year drop in both total and organic revenue is rooted in a cyclical slowdown in the global fertilizer market. In 2024‑25 the company faced weaker demand from key agribusiness regions as planting‑season weather patterns, lower crop‑price expectations and a modest decline in commodity‑price spreads reduced fertilizer usage. At the same time, input‑cost inflation and a modest dip in nitrogen‑price indices compressed margins, which translated into a lower “organic” top line even after normalizing for price‑mix effects. The fact that the decline was “in line with prior expectations” signals that management already anticipated a market‑driven dip rather than an unexpected operational shortfall.

Temporary or structural?

Given the sequential 4% rise in Q2‑2025 revenue and management’s commentary that the shortfall was expected, the issue appears temporary and cyclical—driven by a demand‑cycle trough and pricing headwinds that are typical in the fertilizer sector. There is no indication of a lasting shift in the company’s business model, geographic footprint, or product mix that would suggest a structural, long‑term erosion of top‑line growth.

Trading implications

* Short‑term: The market has likely priced in the cyclical dip, leaving the stock vulnerable to further downside if the slowdown deepens or if commodity‑price spreads stay compressed. Technicals may be testing a near‑term support level (≈ $0.35‑$0.38) with the price still above its 20‑day moving average, offering a modest bounce‑back opportunity on any early‑season demand or price‑recovery signal.

* Medium‑term: The 4% sequential rebound and the absence of structural concerns point to a potential buying opportunity on the dip. If fertilizer demand picks up with a stronger planting season or if nitrogen prices rebound, Ralli‑ant could recoup the YoY gap and resume its longer‑term growth trajectory. A position with a tight stop just below the recent support (≈ $0.34) would allow participation in a upside move while limiting exposure if the cyclical headwinds persist.