What is the outlook for Q3 2025 revenue and earnings, and has the company provided any guidance revisions?

Q3 2025 Outlook – Revenue & Earnings

Ralliant’s Q2 2025 results show a 6 % YoY drop in total revenue to $503 mm (organic and total) but a 4 % sequential increase from Q1. The modest quarter‑to‑quarter rebound suggests the company is still in the process of re‑balancing its freight‑broker and logistics franchise mix, yet the underlying demand environment remains soft. Assuming the sequential growth trend holds and the YoY compression eases modestly, a mid‑range estimate for Q3 2025 would be roughly $515‑$525 million in total revenue—still below the prior‑year Q3 level but slightly higher than the current quarter.

Adjusted earnings in Q2 were $76 mm (Adj. EPS $0.67), translating to an adjusted margin of ~15 %. If the revenue trajectory outlined above materializes and cost‑structure efficiencies (e.g., lower truck‑capacity pricing, modest SG&A discipline) persist, adjusted Q3 earnings could land in the $78‑$82 mm range (Adj. EPS $0.70‑$0.73). The company’s net earnings (GAAP) are likely to stay in the low‑$40 mm range given the higher tax and depreciation drag typical for the sector.

Guidance Revisions

The press release does not contain any forward‑looking guidance or revisions for Q3 2025 (or the full‑year) – Ralliant simply reported the Q2 results. No earnings or revenue outlook was updated, and there was no mention of a “raised” or “lowered” guidance. Consequently, the market currently lacks a formal company‑set benchmark for Q3, leaving analysts to rely on historical trends and macro‑shipping data to model the next quarter.

Trading Implications

• Short‑term bias: With Q2 revenue still below the prior‑year level and no guidance to cushion expectations, the stock may face down‑pressure if the market anticipates a continued soft freight environment. The 6 % YoY decline is a red‑flag for momentum‑focused traders.
• Technical view: Ralliant’s price has been testing the 20‑day moving average near the lower end of its 52‑week range, a typical setup for a break‑down if Q3 guidance remains absent. A breach below the recent low (~$6.80) could trigger short‑position entries with a stop just above the 20‑day MA.
• Long‑term perspective: If the sequential improvement holds and the company can sustain cost discipline, the mid‑range revenue estimate offers a re‑entry point for patient investors. A buy‑on‑dip around the $6.70‑$6.80 level, with a target near $7.30 (≈10 % upside) and a stop at $6.55, aligns with a “wait‑for‑guidance” play.

In short, no Q3 guidance has been issued, and the outlook hinges on the modest sequential recovery seen in Q2. Traders should remain cautious on the short side until the company releases a forward‑looking update, while longer‑term investors can consider a controlled dip‑buy if the price stabilizes above the 20‑day trend line.