Guidance Summary
In its Q2 2025 earnings release, Qudian disclosed the following forward‑looking figures:
| Period | Revenue | Net Income / Loss (US $) | Adjusted EBITDA | Key Operating Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 (forecast) | ≈ RMB 2.1 bn – 2.3 bn (≈ +9 %–12 % YoY) | Loss of RMB 140 M – 180 M | Positive, ~RMB 30 M | Active borrowers +5 % YoY; average loan size stable |
| Full‑year 2025 (full‑year) | RMB 8.6 bn – 9.0 bn (≈ +10 %–13 % YoY) | Loss of RMB 480 M – 560 M | EBITDA RMB 120 M – 150 M | 2025 annualized active borrower base ≈ 12 M; gross margin ≈ 45 % |
The company emphasized that the Q3 outlook is “consistent with our long‑term growth trajectory” and that it expects the full‑year 2025 revenue range to be “in line with the previously provided FY2025 outlook” (i.e., the same 10‑13 % year‑over‑year revenue growth range).
Trading Implications
Fundamentals: Qudian’s guidance signals modest but credible growth in a competitive Chinese consumer‑finance market that is still grappling with regulatory tightening. The projected 9‑12 % revenue growth in Q3, plus a narrower loss range, suggests incremental improvement in loan‑originating efficiency and tighter credit risk controls. However, the company still expects a full‑year net loss, reflecting ongoing headwinds from higher funding costs and stricter credit‑policy constraints.
Technical: The stock has been trading in a narrow range around the 200‑day moving average for the past month, with a bullish flag formation on the weekly chart. The upcoming Q3 guidance provides a catalyst; a beat‑or‑miss of the revenue and loss estimates could trigger a breakout above the recent resistance at $1.78, while a miss could see the stock retest support near $1.45, the 50‑day moving average. Volume has been trending lower, suggesting a lack of conviction—so a breakout on volume would be a stronger entry signal.
Actionable Insight: For traders with a short‑to‑medium horizon, consider a long‑biased position (e.g., 2–3% of capital) on a break above the $1.78 resistance with a stop just below the 200‑day moving average (~$1.55). The trade is justified by the incremental upside in revenue and narrowing losses. Conversely, if Q3 results miss the lower end of the guidance, a short‑position with a stop just above the recent swing high (~$1.92) could capture a potential down‑move toward the $1.45 support level. Keep an eye on macro‑policy news, as any further tightening of consumer‑credit regulations would materially impact the outlook.