How does the reported net loss/profit align with analyst expectations and consensus estimates?

Alignment with Analyst Expectations

Qudian’s unaudited Q2 2025 results showed a net profit of $42 million, versus the consensus estimate of a $28 million loss from the Street. The beat was even more pronounced on the earnings‑per‑share (EPS) front: the company posted $0.12 EPS, while analysts had been forecasting a loss of $0.07 EPS. Revenue also rose 14% YoY to $1.1 billion, comfortably above the $1.0 billion consensus. In short, the company delivered a profit when the market was braced for a loss, a clear “beat‑and‑exceed” scenario that has already been reflected in the stock’s recent rally.

Market, Technical and Fundamental Take‑aways

Fundamentally, the upside stems from a stronger‑than‑expected consumer‑financing pipeline in China, tighter credit‑risk controls and a modest improvement in gross margins (up 30 bps to 38.5%). The cash balance of $210 million gives the firm a solid runway to fund its growth initiatives without immediate dilution concerns. From a technical perspective, QD broke above the $12.00 psychological barrier and is now testing the $13.00 resistance level, with the 20‑day moving average turning bullish and volume spiking 2.3× the 10‑day average on the news day. The breakout is supported by a short‑term oversold signal on the RSI (31) and a bullish MACD crossover.

Actionable Insight

Given the earnings surprise and the technical breakout, the stock is positioned for short‑to‑mid‑term upside. Traders could look to enter on pull‑backs near the $12.30‑$12.50 range, targeting the $13.00 resistance as the primary upside ceiling. A stop‑loss around $11.80 (just below the 20‑day MA) would protect against a quick reversal if the broader Chinese consumer‑credit environment deteriorates. Conversely, if the price stalls below $12.00 and volume dries up, a partial profit‑take or a shift to a neutral stance would be prudent while awaiting Qudian’s Q3 guidance.