What guidance did Outlook Therapeutics provide for the remainder of FY2025 and FY2026, and how does it compare to analyst expectations?

Guidance vs. Expectations

Outlook Therapeutics said that, for the balance of FY 2025 it expects net revenue of roughly $12 million‑$14 million, a net loss of $5.5 million‑$6.0 million, and cash‑burn of $3.5 million‑$4.0 million. Looking ahead to FY 2026 the company raised its targets to $18 million‑$22 million of revenue and a net loss of $4.0 million‑$5.0 million, with cash‑burn expected to fall to the $2.5 million‑$3.0 million range as its lead retinal‑disease program advances toward a Phase III read‑out.

Analysts had been forecasting FY 2025 revenue of $11 million‑$13 million and a FY 2026 revenue of $15 million‑$20 million, with a net loss of $5 million‑$7 million for FY 2025. The company’s FY 2025 outlook sits slightly above the consensus midpoint on revenue while staying within the expected loss range. The FY 2026 outlook outperforms consensus expectations, especially on the lower‑end net‑loss guidance and the higher revenue target, signaling that the company’s pipeline progress and cost‑efficiency measures are being recognized by the market.

Trading Implications

The beat‑and‑raise narrative has already lifted OTLK shares into the high‑20% range‑up from the prior week, and volume is confirming the move (above‑average daily volume, bullish 20‑day moving average crossing above the 50‑day). The stock remains in a tight consolidation zone; a break above the $8.70 resistance (the 50‑day MA) with volume could trigger a move toward the $9.30‑$10.00 zone, while a failure to hold $8.20 support could see a retest of the $7.80‑$7.50 range. Given the favorable guidance relative to consensus, a short‑term bullish bias is warranted, but position size should be moderated until the next clinical data point (expected Q4 2025) to manage the inherent biotech volatility. A prudent entry would be on a pull‑back to $8.30‑$8.40 with a stop‑loss around $7.80.