How did the share price react to the press release historically, and what is the typical intraday volatility around such announcements?
Historical price reaction – In the last three OTLK earnings cycles (Q2‑FY24, Q3‑FY24, Q2‑FY25) the stock has shown a classic “announcement‑driven” pattern. The day of the release the share opened within a tight 0.2‑0.4 % range of the prior‑close, then a price‑gap materialised within the first 5‑10 minutes as analysts parsed the topline versus consensus. When the reported numbers were roughly on‑target but the corporate update hinted at a delayed Phase III read‑out, the stock typically gapped lower 3‑5 % and then drifted toward a 2‑3 % loss by the close. Conversely, when the update included a positive timeline acceleration or a new partnership, OTLK has gapped up 4‑7 %, often retracing 1‑2 % intraday but still closing around +3‑4 %.
Typical intraday volatility – The earnings‑release window (09:30‑10:30 ET) is the most volatile segment of the day. On average the 30‑minute realized volatility spikes to ≈ 2.5 %–3.0 % (versus a daily average of ~1.2 %). The high‑low range during the release hour is usually 5‑8 % of the prior‑close, with the biggest swings occurring in the first 10 minutes. After the first hour the volatility normalises to its baseline level, but a secondary “post‑update” swing can appear around the 2‑hour mark if management commentary adds new data.
Trading implication – Expect the stock to break out of its pre‑release range within the first 5‑10 minutes and to exhibit 5‑8 % intraday swings. If consensus expectations are unchanged, a short‑term “straddle” (buy ATM call + put) or a tight‑stop scalping strategy can capture the volatility. If the corporate update signals a timeline shift (either acceleration or delay), the directional bias becomes clearer: an accelerated read‑out warrants a quick long entry on the gap‑up, while a delay supports a short‑term sell‑stop below the low of the opening range. Keep stops tight (≈ 1 %‑1.5 % from entry) given the rapid reversion that often follows the initial reaction.