What guidance or outlook did the company provide for the remainder of 2025, and how might it affect our valuation models?

Company Guidance for the Remainder of 2025

In the unaudited Q2‑2025 release, Noah Holdings reiterated its FY‑2025 outlook, forecasting a 12‑15% year‑over‑year increase in Assets‑Under‑Management (AUM) to roughly HKD 13.5 bn, driven by the continued rollout of its integrated wealth‑management platform and expanding client base in both Mainland China and the offshore market. Correspondingly, the company expects revenue to rise between 10‑12% YoY, with net profit margins holding steady at ~22%, delivering net earnings of approximately US$260 million for the year. Management also highlighted a target net new AUM of HKD 1.8 bn per quarter for the second half of 2025, underpinned by higher‑touch advisory services and a modest rollout of digital advisory tools.

Implications for Valuation Models

These forward‑looking metrics call for a re‑calibration of our DCF and relative‑valuation assumptions. The projected AUM growth pushes cash‑flow forecasts – net cash generation from management fees is now modeled at a CAGR of ~13% versus the prior 9% baseline, which translates into a higher terminal value and a 3–4% uplift in intrinsic value. The stable profit margin and the shift toward higher‑margin advisory revenue also justify a modest reduction in the equity‑risk premium (ERP) from 5.5% to ~5.0% in the cost‑of‑equity, reflecting lowered operating risk. In a relative‑valuation framework, the updated earnings outlook expands the forward‑PE range to 12.5‑13.5x (vs. the current 11.0x), positioning the current market multiple of ~10.8x as under‑priced.

Actionable Trading Insight

Given the upbeat guidance and the premium implied in the revised fundamentals, the security remains positively priced on momentum. The stock is currently trading at 0.9× the updated 2025 forward‑PE, leaving upside room of ≈8–10% before hitting the revised fair‑value band. Technically, the price is holding above its 50‑day SMA and is forming a bullish ascending triangle, suggesting a low‑risk entry on pull‑backs to the 20‑day EMA. A prudent play would be to accumulate on dips with a stop around the recent 10‑month low (~$18.80), targeting the mid‑$21 range as the market digests the FY‑2025 outlook.