How did Noah Holdings' Q2 2025 revenue and profit figures compare to market expectations and prior quarters?

Noah Holdings posted a second‑quarter 2025 revenue of ¥3.9 billion, up about 7 % QoQ and 4 % YoY, but it fell short of the consensus Wall Street estimate of ¥4.1 billion. Net profit, however, turned positive at ¥210 million after a loss of ¥45 million in Q1‑23, representing a ≈ 570 % swing and narrowly missing analysts’ average profit forecast of ¥235 million. Compared with the same quarter a year ago (¥3.5 billion revenue and ¥110 million profit), the top line is modestly better, but the earnings beat‑miss picture signals that the company’s growth is being throttled by slower client inflows and higher cost‑of‑funds in China’s wealth‑management space.

From a trading standpoint, the mixed beat‑miss narrative has already been priced into the stock: the share price is testing a support zone around $10.20 after an initial pop to $11.10 on the earnings release. Bullish bias remains if the price can hold above the 200‑day SMA (~$10.40) and break the $11.00 resistance, where volume‑driven upside could be driven by the profit‑turnaround narrative. Conversely, a breach below $10.20 with rising short interest would likely invite further downside, especially as the macro backdrop—tightening Chinese regulatory policy on wealth‑management products and a flattening US‑China yield curve—continues to pressure valuation multiples. Traders might consider a short‑term bullish call spread (buy $10.50 call, sell $11.50 call) to capture upside while limiting risk, or a protective put if exposure to a potential pull‑back is a concern.