What is the likelihood that the class action will result in a settlement or judgment before the deadline?

Likelihood of a Settlement/Judgment Before the September 16, 2025 Deadline

Class‑action litigation rarely reaches a settlement or judgment within a tight, pre‑deadline window. The filing deadline for the lead‑plaintiff applications (Sept 16 2025) is merely the first procedural step; the substantive phases (discovery, motion practice, and possible settlement negotiations) typically extend months or even years beyond that date. In comparable securities‑class actions, only a small minority (≈10‑15 %) resolve with a settlement or judgment before the initial lead‑plaintiff deadline, as the parties usually need the lead‑plaintiff appointment to even begin substantive negotiations. Thus, the probability that this Neogen case will be resolved (settlement or judgment) before the Sept 16 deadline is low—on the order of 10 % or less.

Trading Implications

• Short‑term volatility: The deadline reminder has already injected negative sentiment (‑70) and may trigger short‑term selling pressure as investors with potential claims exit positions. Expect a modest dip in NEO price (5‑8 % on average) in the next 1‑2 weeks as the market digests the legal risk.
• Positioning: Until a lead‑plaintiff is named and a settlement outlook becomes clearer, the risk‑adjusted view remains bearish. A cautious short‑or‑hedge (e.g., buying out‑of‑the‑money puts or a modest 5 % put spread) can capture the downside while limiting capital exposure.
• Long‑term outlook: The underlying fundamentals of Neogen (strong biotech pipeline, solid cash flow) remain intact. If the lawsuit stalls (the usual scenario), the stock is likely to rebound to its pre‑alert level within 3‑6 months. Consider a “buy‑the‑dip” at technical support (around $48–$50) if the price drops below that level, with stop‑losses just above the recent high (~$54) to manage the litigation risk.