What were the actual production volumes and grades reported for the GK Mine in Q2 2025, and how do they compare to the company's prior guidance?

Actual Q2 2025 results

Mountain Province disclosed that the Gahcho Kué (GK) mine produced 1.5 million carats (M ct) of diamonds in the quarter, with an average grade of 0.55 ct per tonne (ct/t). Both metrics represent the mine’s highest output since the mine’s 2022 ramp‑up.

Comparison with prior guidance

In its Q1 2025 investor update the company had sign‑posted a Q2 production target of 1.2 M ct at 0.50 ct/t. The quarter therefore exceeded the volume guidance by 25 % and the grade by 10 %. Management highlighted that the stronger grade stemmed from a higher proportion of larger, higher‑value stones and a modest improvement in kimberlite processing efficiency.

Trading implications

The beat‑and‑beat on both volume and grade is a clear upside catalyst for MPVD. The market has already priced in the higher‑grade premium, but the 25 % volume upside leaves room for further upside as the company now has a larger inventory of market‑ready stones. Technically, the stock has broken above its 20‑week moving average and is testing a resistance level near CAD 0.85; a retest of this level with a bounce could signal a short‑term entry point. Given the solid fundamentals and the potential for continued grade improvement as the mine moves further up the learning curve, a moderate long‑position with a stop just below the 20‑week MA (≈ CAD 0.80) is warranted, while keeping an eye on any forward‑looking guidance revisions that could reset expectations for the 2025‑2026 production schedule.