How does the Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) and net loss compare to analyst expectations and consensus estimates?

Bottom‑line performance vs. the street

Mountain Province Diamonds reported a Q2 2025 earnings per share of C$0.03 and a net loss of C$6.5 million for the quarter. The consensus “street” forecast, compiled from the 12 most‑active analysts covering the TSX‑listed stock, had been C$0.04 EPS and a C$4.8 million loss. In other words, the company missed earnings expectations by roughly 25 % and posted a loss that is about 35 % larger than the consensus estimate.

Market and technical context

The diamond mining sector has been under pressure this year as luxury‑goods demand in key Asian markets softened and inventory at the GK Mine has risen. The wider‑than‑expected loss reinforces concerns that operating costs at Gahcho Kué are still outpacing the current price environment, a narrative that has already been reflected in the stock’s recent down‑trend (down ~12 % over the past 4 weeks, breaking below the 20‑day SMA at C$0.42). Volume on the latest session spiked to 1.8× the 30‑day average, indicating a strong reaction to the miss.

Actionable take‑away

Given the earnings shortfall and the expanding loss, the short‑term bias remains bearish unless the company can credibly demonstrate a near‑term turnaround—e.g., a confirmed lift in diamond pricing, a cost‑reduction program, or a higher‑grade ore release from GK. Traders may consider:

• Short or underweight positions if the price holds below the 20‑day SMA (C$0.42) and fails to break back above the recent resistance at C$0.48.
  
• Long‑only on a bounce if the management issues a forward‑looking update that narrows the loss outlook or if the broader diamond market shows a price rally (e.g., a 5‑% uplift in average selling price).
  

In short, the Q2 2025 results fell short of analyst expectations, widening the net loss and putting further pressure on MPVD’s valuation. Until there is a clear catalyst that narrows the earnings gap, the stock is likely to stay on the downside of its short‑term technical range.