What is the projected revenue growth trajectory for the second half of 2025 given the accelerating momentum?

Revenue outlook – H2 2025

Mobilicom (MOBI) posted a $1.5 MM top‑line in H1 2025 and, as of 30 June, held an order backlog of $1.6 MM. The $3.1 MM “combined total” already matches the full‑year 2024 revenue, meaning the pipeline is sufficient to replicate or exceed H1 sales in the second half of the year. Assuming Mobilicom converts roughly 80‑90 % of the backlog into billings (typical for a high‑growth SaaS/tele‑com services firm) and adds a modest incremental pipeline from the “new sales ramp,” H2 revenue can be projected in the $1.5 MM–$1.8 MM range. That would lift 2025 total revenue to $4.5 MM–$4.9 MM, representing a ~45‑55 % year‑over‑year increase versus the H1‑only figure and a ~30‑40 % uplift versus the full‑year 2024 run‑rate.

Trading implications

• Fundamentals: The accelerating momentum is underpinned by a solid backlog, low‑cost service model and a clear upside from the second‑half sales ramp. The incremental cash‑flow from a near‑doubling of revenue should improve operating leverage and could trigger an upgrade in forward‑looking earnings guidance, a catalyst for price appreciation.
  
• Technical: MOBI has been trading in a tight 20‑day EMA‑uptrend since the June earnings release, with the price holding above the 50‑day SMA and forming a higher‑high, higher‑low pattern. A pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (≈ $0.12‑$0.13) would offer a lower‑risk entry point.
  
• Actionable play: For a medium‑term bullish stance, consider a $0.13 entry with a $0.18 target (≈ 30 % upside) and a $0.10 stop‑loss to protect against a break of the 20‑day EMA. The upside is driven by the expected H2 revenue lift and the likelihood of an upgraded 2025 guidance, while the downside risk is limited given the strong order backlog and the company’s cash‑neutral cost structure.