Impact on cash flow â The $1.6âŻmillion order backlog added to the $1.5âŻmillion H1 revenue already puts Mobilicom on track to match or exceed its fullâyear 2024 sales. As these orders move through the fulfillment pipeline, the company will see a stepâup in cash receipts in the second half of 2025. Assuming the historical cashâconversion cycle holds, the bulk of the backlog will translate into operating cash within 30â45âŻdays of shipment, bolstering freeâcashâflow and giving the balance sheet a stronger liquidity cushion ahead of any capitalâexpenditure or R&D outlays.
Workingâcapital implications â While the topâline upside is clear, the expanding pipeline also raises shortâterm workingâcapital needs. Converting a larger order book into revenue will require higher levels of rawâmaterial inventory, increased workâinâprocess, and a larger accountsâreceivable pool as customers are billed before they pay. If Mobilicomâs receivable turnover does not improve, the net workingâcapital (NWC) ratio could drift upward, temporarily compressing cash flow until the cashâcollection cycle catches up with the higher sales volume.
Trading takeâaway â The fundamentals are improving: a growing backlog and accelerating revenue suggest upside potential, especially if the stock has been underâpriced on the back of modest H1 results. A shortâtoâmidâterm position could be justified on the premise of a âpipelineâdrivenâ rally, but investors should keep an eye on cashâconversion metrics and NWC trends. If the company demonstrates a tightening of its cashâconversion cycle (e.g., receivable days down, inventory turns up) while the backlog expands, the upside is likely to be sustainable and the stock could see a breakout above its recent technical resistance. Conversely, a widening NWC gap without corresponding cashâflow improvement would be a red flag and may cap the upside.