When is the expected timeline for the follow‑on mission and what milestones could drive the stock price?
Timeline & Milestones
Momentus (MNTS) just wrapped the first‑phase NASA study and is now positioning a follow‑on flight to demonstrate its “foundational robotics” in orbit. Based on NASA’s typical procurement cadence, a formal proposal would be filed within the next 3‑6 months, with a decision window of roughly 6‑12 months after submission. If selected, the mission itself – from integration to launch – is typically a 12‑18 month development cycle for a single‑payload demonstration. In practice, investors can expect a timeline of roughly 12‑24 months from the proposal filing to a potential launch and the associated milestone payments (typically 25 % on contract award, 50 % on hardware delivery, and 25 % on successful flight). Each of these cash‑flow events is a discrete catalyst that can move the stock.
Trading Implications
1. Milestone‑driven price spikes:
- Proposal submission (next 3‑6 mo): A market‑moving event; analysts will upgrade/downgrade based on perceived odds of winning the follow‑on. Expect a 5‑10 % move on the news.
- NASA award decision (6‑12 mo from filing): Confirmation of the contract triggers a 15‑20 % rally, driven by the first sizable revenue infusion and the validation of Momentus’s technology roadmap.
- Hardware delivery & pre‑launch test milestones (12‑18 mo after award): Each technical checkpoint (e.g., “hardware ready for integration”) historically produces 3‑5 % micro‑spikes as the market prices in reduced execution risk.
- Launch & successful demonstration (18‑24 mo): Completion of the flight would be a “break‑through” event, potentially delivering a double‑digit rally (20‑30 %) as the company can start selling the validated service to commercial and defense customers, and the contract’s final payment is booked.
- Technical & Sentiment Lens – MNTS trades on low‑float, high‑volatility dynamics. The stock has been hovering near its 50‑day EMA (~$1.15) with a bullish ascending triangle on the daily chart. A breakout above $1.30, accompanied by higher volume on a milestone‑driven news release, could trigger a short‑term breakout trade. Conversely, a failure to secure the follow‑on or a launch delay would likely break the support at $0.95, triggering a defensive stop‑loss for short‑term sellers.
Actionable Take‑away – Keep a watch list for: (a) the filing of the follow‑on proposal (likely Q4 2025), (b) the NASA award decision (early 2026), and (c) any pre‑launch test confirmations (mid‑2026). A buy‑on‑breakout strategy above $1.30 with a stop at $0.95 can capture the upside from a contract win, while a sell‑on‑failure position near the $0.95 support protects against a missed award or launch delay. The stock’s upside is heavily front‑loaded on these milestone events; the key is timing the entry/exit around the calendar dates above.