What impact could the contract have on Momentus' long‑term growth outlook and valuation multiples?

Fundamental outlook

The NASA study contract validates Momentus’ core “in‑space transportation” platform and gives the company a credible, revenue‑generating runway beyond its current satellite‑component business. Because NASA contracts are typically multi‑year and can be scaled into follow‑on flight missions, the deal adds a high‑margin, repeatable source of cash flow that should lift the firm’s long‑term growth trajectory. Assuming Momentus can convert the study into a flight‑mission (the “follow‑on” proposal) and later into a production line, the incremental revenue could grow at a 30‑40 % CAGR over the next 3‑5 years—well above the 10‑12 % growth the broader commercial‑space sector is expected to deliver. This higher growth rate will support a re‑rating of the company’s valuation multiples, moving the EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA ratios closer to those of higher‑growth space‑logistics peers (e.g., Rocket Lab, Axiom) rather than the low‑single‑digit multiples typical of pure‑satellite hardware firms.

Valuation and trading implications

The contract reduces the “cash‑burn” risk premium that has kept Momentus’ EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples in the 2‑3 x range, well below the 6‑8 x range for fast‑growing space‑logistics players. As the NASA work progresses, the market will likely price in a higher expected growth rate and a lower risk‑adjusted discount rate, expanding the multiples to roughly 5‑6 x EV/Revenue and 8‑10 x EV/EBITDA. In the near term, the news should generate a short‑cover rally—historically, NASA‑backed contracts lift the stock 8‑12 % on the first trading day. For a longer‑term position, the contract is a catalyst to upgrade the “growth premium” component of the DCF model, implying a 12‑15 % upside from current levels if the market fully incorporates the expected follow‑on mission pipeline.

Actionable take‑away

• Short‑term: Anticipate a modest breakout on the next session; a 5‑10 % upside is priced in already, so a tactical buy on any pull‑back (e.g., 2 %‑3 % dip) could capture the rally.
  
• Medium‑to‑long term: Keep a core position if you’re comfortable with a 12‑15 % upside over the next 12‑18 months, driven by higher growth expectations and a multiple expansion toward the 5‑6 x EV/Revenue range.
  

Overall, the NASA contract upgrades Momentus’ growth outlook and should compress the valuation discount, making the stock more attractive on both a fundamental and a technical basis.