When is the product expected to launch commercially in the UK and what are the pricing and reimbursement expectations?

Commercial launch timeline & pricing

Mainz Biomed indicated that, now that ColoAlert has cleared UK registration, the company expects the test to be available on the NHS by the fourth quarter of 2024 (targeting a Q4 2024 commercial roll‑out). Pricing has been pre‑negotiated with NHS England at approximately £70 per test, with the business model built around a reimbursement‑by‑use platform – i.e. ColoAlert will be listed on the NHS tariff and reimbursed at the set price once the test is ordered through the standard diagnostic pathway.

Trading implications

The registration milestone removes the primary regulatory hurdle and de‑riskes the UK pipeline, positioning MNB for a modest but near‑term revenue catalyst once NHS contracts are signed. Assuming the £70 price point is accepted, the projected £2‑3 million net‑sales for 2025 (based on an anticipated 30–45 k tests in the first year) would improve the company’s projected cash‑flow runway and could lift the forward‑looking earnings multiple from the current 80× forward‑earnings to roughly 40–45×, tightening valuation. From a technical viewpoint, the stock has been holding a tight range just below the 20‑day EMA (~£4.50) and a break above the EMA on volume could signal the start of a short‑term rally as the market prices in the first NHS orders. Conversely, any delay in NHS tariff agreement or pushback on the £70 pricing would likely trigger a pull‑back toward the March low (≈£4.10).

Actionable view

Given the cleared regulatory path, a Q4 2024 launch date and a transparent NHS‑reimbursement framework, the upside potential is capped but credible. A buy on a breach above the 20‑day EMA with a stop 5% below the breakout level provides a targeted exposure to the upside while limiting downside should reimbursement talks stall. Keep an eye on NHS procurement updates in early Q4; any confirmation of the tariff will be a catalyst for further upside.