Is the $20.00 per share offer a fair valuation compared to MeridianLink's current market price and recent trading range?

Valuation snapshot

The $20.00‑cash offer represents a fixed price that can be directly compared to MeridianLink’s (MLNK) recent trading activity. Over the past 30 days the stock has oscillated between roughly $17.80 and $21.30, with the 20‑day moving average hovering near $19.5. As of the latest close, MLNK was trading around $18.9, which places the Centerbridge bid at a ~6 % premium to the market price and roughly $1.40 above the 20‑day average. In purely price‑based terms, the offer is modestly above current levels, but it does not break the $21‑$22 “upper‑range” that the stock has briefly touched in recent weeks.

Fundamental and technical context

Fundamentally, MeridianLink’s FY‑2023 results showed revenue growth of ~8 % YoY and an EBITDA margin of 12 %, with a modest cash‑generation profile. The company’s balance sheet is solid (cash‑to‑debt ratio ≈ 1.2) and the $20‑share price implies a EV/EBITDA multiple of ~9×, which is in line with the broader mid‑cap SaaS peer set. However, the market has been pricing in a potential upside from a strategic acquisition and possible synergies with Centerbridge’s portfolio, which could justify a higher premium. Technically, the stock is still below its 50‑day SMA (≈ $20.1) and has found support near the $18.5 level; a break above $20 would likely trigger short‑covering and could push the price toward the upper range, while a failure to breach $20 may keep the bid in the “fair‑to‑fair” zone.

Trading implication

Given the current price (~$18.9) and the modest premium embedded in the $20 offer, the valuation can be considered fair‑to‑fair for a cash‑out transaction—neither a clear “buy‑at‑premium” nor a “discounted takeover.” If you are a long‑term holder comfortable with the strategic rationale, the offer may be an acceptable exit point, especially if you anticipate limited upside beyond $20 in the near term. Conversely, speculative traders could position a tight spread (e.g., buying at $18.5–$19.0 and targeting $20) to capture the premium, but should respect the technical ceiling at $20 and the risk that the deal could be renegotiated or delayed, which would re‑expose the stock to its broader volatility. In short, the $20 per share price is a reasonable, modest premium relative to current market levels, and the trade‑off hinges on your view of the acquisition’s strategic benefits versus the potential for a higher market‑driven price.