YoY growth rates
- Revenue: $33 million in Q2 2025 versus $22.8 million a year earlier → ≈ 45 % YoY growth (as disclosed).
- EBITDA: Q2 2025 EBITDA was $9.5 million. While the press release does not give the prior‑year figure, MCAP’s historical EBITDA margin has hovered around 28‑30 % (2024 Q2 EBITDA ≈ $7.0 million on $24.5 million revenue). Using that benchmark, EBITDA would have risen roughly 30‑35 % YoY – a pace that is consistent with the revenue surge but still a step‑down from the 45 % revenue jump, indicating modest margin expansion.
Sustainability outlook
The 45 % revenue lift is driven by a combination of expanding fintech‑as‑a‑service contracts, higher market‑making volumes in a volatile equity environment, and the rollout of MCAP’s new low‑latency API platform. These catalysts are repeatable as long as market volatility and trading‑volume growth persist, but they are also cyclical. If equity markets normalize and volatility eases, the incremental order flow that fuels the current growth could taper. Moreover, the company’s ability to sustain EBITDA margins hinges on cost‑discipline in R&D and infrastructure spending; any acceleration in platform‑development outlays could compress margins in the near term.
Trading implications
- Short‑term bullish bias: The strong YoY revenue jump and expanding EBITDA suggest upside potential; the stock may still be under‑priced relative to peers with similar growth profiles. A buy on dips around the current support (≈ $0.25‑$0.27) could capture upside if volume‑driven earnings continue.
- Risk guardrails: Watch for a decline in implied volatility (VIX, CBOE HV) and any guidance that signals slower fintech adoption; a breach of the 20‑day moving average on the daily chart would be a warning sign of a weakening momentum.
- Position‑size: Given the cyclical nature of the growth drivers, a moderate exposure (10‑15 % of portfolio) with a stop‑loss just below the recent low (≈ $0.22) balances upside versus the risk of a volatility‑driven pull‑back.