What is the outlook for market‑making volumes and pricing environment in the upcoming quarters?

Fundamental outlook – MCAP’s Q2 results beat expectations, posting a 45 % YoY jump in revenue to $33 M and an EBITDA of $9.5 M (≈ 28 % of revenue), while EPS climbed to $0.28. The high‑single‑digit net margin and strong cash conversion signal that the firm’s market‑making platform is scaling efficiently. With the fintech‑driven “speed‑to‑market” advantage and a growing client base (larger broker‑dealers and crypto‑exchange partners), we can anticipate a continuation of the 30‑40 % annual volume growth the company has been reporting. In a low‑interest‑rate, high‑volatility environment—especially as equity markets remain range‑bound but with frequent swing‑trade activity—market makers typically see an uptick in order flow as institutional traders seek liquidity for both equity and digital‑asset markets. Consequently, MCAP’s volume pipeline should stay robust, with quarterly volume growth likely to stay in the high‑20s to low‑30s percent range through Q4 2025 and into 2026, barring a major macro shock.

Pricing environment & trading implications – The surge in revenue and EBITDA suggests MCAP can afford tighter pricing spreads while still preserving margins. Expect the firm to leverage its cost‑efficient technology to offer more aggressive pricing to capture market share, especially against legacy market makers that are still transitioning to modern infrastructure. As a result, the pricing environment in the next few quarters should be moderately competitive: spreads may tighten by 5‑10 bps for high‑volume clients, while retail‑oriented pricing could see modest upside as demand for low‑cost execution rises. Technically, MCAP’s stock has been trending above its 20‑day moving average with a narrowing 10‑day Bollinger Band, indicating a relatively stable price foundation; a break above the recent high (≈ $1.10) on a volume spike would signal a strong buy‑the‑dip opportunity. Conversely, a break below the 20‑day SMA on declining volume could signal a temporary pricing pressure and a potential short‑term pullback. Actionable tip: Consider adding to long positions on dips to the 20‑day MA with tight stops (~2 % below entry) to capture upside from anticipated volume growth and incremental pricing power. Keep an eye on macro‑driven volatility spikes, which typically boost market‑making demand and can further compress spreads to the benefit of MCAP’s high‑efficiency model.