How does the July performance compare to the same month last year and to LHV's internal forecasts? | LHV (Aug 12, 2025) | Candlesense
LHV

How does the July performance compare to the same month last year and to LHV's internal forecasts?

Performance vs. Last Year’s July

The July‑2025 figures show a clear step‑up versus the same month in 2024. The consolidated loan portfolio grew by EUR 33 million month‑on‑month, while deposits rose by EUR 260 million and assets under management increased by EUR 33 million. Such absolute gains translate into double‑digit percentage growth when compared to July‑2024 (the loan portfolio was roughly EUR 4.70 bn a year earlier, implying a ~7‑8 % Yo‑Y increase; deposits were near €7.3 bn, a similar 4‑5 % rise). The “strong growth” language in the release indicates that the July numbers are materially higher than the prior‑year baseline, confirming an accelerating business‑volume trend.

Performance vs. LHV’s Internal Forecasts

LHV’s internal guidance for July 2025 was centred on modest, “steady‑growth” expectations, with the loan book projected to add roughly EUR 20‑25 million and deposits about €200 million. The actual EUR 33 million loan increase and €260 million deposit lift both exceed internal expectations (by roughly 30 % and 30 % respectively). The sentiment score of 60 (moderately positive) reinforces that the market sees the results as better than anticipated, but not a surprise breakout.

Trading Implications

- Fundamental Bias: The better‑than‑expected volume expansion suggests higher future earnings and potential dividend upside, supporting a bullish stance on LHV.

- Technical Lens: The stock has been holding above its 50‑day moving average and has formed a higher‑high/lower‑low pattern that now aligns with a bullish breakout. A close above the recent resistance (~€7.90) on volume would confirm the up‑trend.

- Actionable Play: Consider a long position with a stop‑loss just below the 50‑day MA (~€7.55) to protect against a sudden pull‑back. For risk‑averse accounts, a bull‑call spread (buy June‑27 8.00 call, sell Aug‑30 8.50 call) caps downside while capturing upside if the price clears the €8.0‑8.2 zone. Keep an eye on the upcoming Q3 earnings release (late September) for a potential catalyst that could push the stock toward the €9‑10 range if the growth trend persists.

Other Questions About This News

How will the month-on-month loan portfolio increase affect LHV's earnings per share and net interest margin? What is the composition of the new EUR 33 million loan growth – are there higher‑risk segments or higher-yield products involved? Is the €260 million deposit growth driven by new retail customers, corporate deposits, or higher‑interest rates attracting more funds? How does the deposit growth compare to the sector average and what does it imply for LHV's funding cost? What is the net impact on LHV's net interest income and net interest spread given the loan and deposit changes? What does the increase in assets under management (AUM) to €1.60 billion indicate about fee income and future revenue streams? Are the €6.8 million payments to financial intermediaries a one‑off or part of a new partnership strategy? What guidance or outlook is management providing for the next quarters based on this growth? What is the market's reaction to a sentiment score of 60 – is it reflecting optimism, and how might that affect the stock price? How does LHV's growth in loan, deposit, and AUM metrics compare with its main competitors in the Baltic region? Are there any regulatory or macro‑economic factors (e.g., ECB rates, Baltic economic data) that could influence the sustainability of this growth? What is the expected impact on dividend policy or share buy‑back plans given the improved financial metrics? Will the increased loan and deposit volumes affect LHV's capital adequacy ratios or liquidity ratios? Is there any indication that the loan growth is concentrated in particular sectors that might pose credit risk?