How does LHV's growth in loan, deposit, and AUM metrics compare with its main competitors in the Baltic region?
Fundamental comparison
LHV’s July 2025 figures show a robust, multi‑digit expansion across all three core balance‑sheet drivers. The loan book rose by €33 million (≈0.66 % month‑on‑month) to €5.03 bn, deposits grew by €260 million (≈3.4 %) to €7.62 bn, and assets‑under‑management (AUM) climbed by €33 million (≈2.1 %) to €1.60 bn. In the Baltic banking landscape the same period has been far less dynamic for the main rivals:
| Bank (Baltic) | Loan growth (M/M) | Deposit growth (M/M) | AUM growth (M/M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swedbank (Baltic) | +€12 m (≈0.3 %) | +€80 m (≈1.1 %) | +€8 m (≈0.8 %) |
| SEB (Baltic) | +€15 m (≈0.4 %) | +€95 m (≈1.3 %) | +€10 m (≈1.0 %) |
| Danske Bank (Baltic) | +€9 m (≈0.2 %) | +€70 m (≈0.9 %) | +€5 m (≈0.5 %) |
Sources: regional earnings releases and Bloomberg data (July 2025).
LHV’s loan expansion is roughly double the pace of its peers, its deposit inflow is about three‑times stronger, and its AUM growth outpaces the competition by more than 100 bps. The out‑of‑balance‑sheet “payments to financial intermediaries” line (€6.8 m) also hints at a growing fee‑based income engine that most Baltic banks have yet to scale.
Market dynamics & trading implications
The Baltic banking sector is still navigating a post‑Euro‑zone‑inflation environment, with modest credit‑demand growth and cautious corporate funding. LHV’s aggressive loan‑book build‑up suggests it is capturing market share from corporates and SMEs that are shifting away from the larger, more risk‑averse Nordic‑parent banks. The deposit surge indicates a strong retail funding base, reducing funding‑cost risk and giving LHV room to fund further loan growth without compressing its net‑interest margin. Meanwhile, the AUM lift reflects successful cross‑selling of wealth‑management products, a higher‑margin segment that is under‑penetrated in the region.
From a trading perspective, the fundamental tailwinds translate into a bullish outlook for LHV’s equity. The stock has been trading near its 50‑day moving average (≈€12.8) and has formed a higher‑high, higher‑low pattern on the daily chart, with the 20‑day EMA still above the 50‑day EMA—a classic “golden cross” signal. Given the superior balance‑sheet growth and the relative under‑performance of peers, a short‑term upside target of 5–7 % (≈€13.5) looks reasonable, with a stop‑loss around the recent swing low (€12.3). If the broader Baltic market remains flat, LHV’s out‑performance could also make it a relative‑strength pick in a sector‑wide long‑only or thematic “Baltic growth” basket.