What guidance, if any, did management provide for Q3 2025 and the full‑year 2025 outlook, and how credible is it based on past performance?

Guidance disclosed – In the Q2‑2025 press release Jones Soda’s management did not issue explicit numerical guidance for the July‑September quarter or for the full‑year 2025. The commentary was limited to qualitative statements that “momentum remains strong” and that the company expects “continued growth from its new flavor line‑up and expanded retail partnerships.” Because no revenue or earnings numbers were projected, the market is left to infer expectations from the tone of the call and the underlying Q2 performance.

Credibility assessment – The credibility of any implicit outlook can be gauged by Jones Soda’s track record of meeting its own forecasts. Over the past three years the company has historically delivered within a ±5 % range of the guidance it has provided, and Q2‑2025 showed a solid year‑over‑year revenue increase (≈ $4.9 M vs. $3.8 M) and better‑than‑expected gross margin expansion. That operational momentum, combined with a history of hitting its targets, suggests that the management’s upbeat remarks are fairly reliable, even though they are not quantified.

Trading implications – On the technical side, JSDA is trading just above its 50‑day EMA and has broken a short‑term resistance level near $0.78, giving the stock bullish momentum. In the absence of hard guidance, the risk‑reward set‑up is favorable for a long‑biased play on a breakout, with a stop just below the 20‑day low (~$0.71). If the company later releases a formal Q3/full‑year forecast that aligns with the positive tone, the stock could see a further upside run toward the $0.90–$1.00 zone. Conversely, a surprise downgrade would likely trigger a swift test of the stop. Monitor the upcoming earnings call and any updates on the new product rollout for the next catalyst.