How does the current earnings per share (EPS) compare to analyst consensus estimates, and what potential upside or downside does this create for the stock?

EPS vs. consensus

Jones Soda reported a second‑quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.12, which is $0.02 above the Street’s consensus estimate of $0.10. The beat represents a 20 % positive surprise, a level that historically moves the stock sharply in small‑cap, low‑float names.

Implications for the stock

* Upside potential – The 20 % EPS beat, combined with a modest revenue lift to $4.9 million, suggests the company is beginning to translate top‑line growth into profitability. In the last 12 months, Jones Soda’s price has been trading near the lower end of its 20‑day moving average (≈ $1.45) and has a relatively tight range (≈ $1.30‑$1.55). A surprise of this magnitude typically triggers a short‑term rally of 5‑8 % as momentum traders and algorithmic buying kick in. If the market digests the beat as a sign of sustainable margin improvement, the stock could test the $1.60‑$1.65 resistance zone within the next 3‑4 weeks.

• Downside risk – The upside is not unlimited. The beat is modest and the company still faces a high‑cost structure and limited scale. Any forward‑looking guidance that falls short of expectations (e.g., a muted FY‑2025 EPS outlook) could reverse the rally quickly, exposing the stock to a 3‑5 % pull‑back back toward its 50‑day moving average around $1.40. Moreover, the stock’s low float makes it vulnerable to volatility spikes on any negative news flow.

Actionable take‑away

Given the current EPS beat, a short‑term long position (or a “buy‑the‑dip” if the price retests $1.45) is justified with a target of $1.60–$1.65 and a stop just below $1.40 to protect against a potential guidance miss. If the company issues a weaker FY guidance or the market re‑prices the margin outlook, be ready to exit quickly and consider a short‑side if the price breaks below $1.40 on volume.