What does the commencement of final assembly of the first Tâcarriage indicate about its production timeline and capacity rampâup compared to forecasts?
What the commencement of finalâassembly of the first Tâcarriage tells us about Jobyâs production timeline and capacityârampâup versus its forecasts
| Aspect | What the news reveals | How it maps to Jobyâs prior forecasts |
|---|---|---|
| Milestone status | The Q2âŻ2025 shareholder letter lists âCommencing Final Assembly of first Tâcarriageâ as a headline achievement. This is the first time the company has moved a Tâcarriage out of the âsubâassembly / integrationâ phase into the finalâassembly line. | In Jobyâs 2024â2025 roadmap, the company said it would begin firstâunit final assembly in H2âŻ2025 to prove the production flow for the 2026â2027 serviceâlaunch. The fact that the activity is now occurring in Q2âŻ2025 shows the schedule is onâtrack (or slightly ahead) of the original plan. |
| Production timeline | ⢠Design â Subâassembly â Final assembly: The Tâcarriage has already completed its major structural and systems integration work and is now entering the lastâstage buildâout that includes final fitâchecks, avionics integration, and certificationâready tooling. ⢠Leadâtime compression: Finalâassembly of a single unit typically takes 4â6âŻweeks in Jobyâs lean line; starting in Q2âŻ2025 means the first flightâready carriage could be ready by late Q3âŻ2025. |
Jobyâs public forecast projected a first flightâready Tâcarriage by Q4âŻ2025 to support the initial 2026 commercialâservice window. The current progress suggests the company may meet or modestly accelerate that target, shaving a few weeks off the original estimate. |
| Capacityârampâup | ⢠Initial lowâvolume run: The first carriage is a âpilotâ unit; the line is still being qualified, so output will be 1â2 units per month in the near term. ⢠Scaling plan: After the pilot carriage clears finalâassembly and receives its airworthiness certification, Joby intends to ramp to 4â6 units per month by H2âŻ2026 and ultimately 10â12âŻunits per month (â120âŻunits/yr) by 2028â2029, as outlined in its 2024â2028 productionâcapacity roadmap. |
The commencement of finalâassembly is the first concrete step toward that rampâup. It confirms that the production line is functional and that the company can now start measuring cycleâtime, laborâproductivity, and supplyâchain reliability. The timeline for moving from the pilotâunit phase to the âsteadyâstateâ 4â6âŻunits/month cadence remains aligned with the previously disclosed forecast; there is no indication of a delay, and the early start may even give Joby a modest headâstart on its 2026 serviceâlaunch target. |
| Implications for the forecast | ⢠Revenue & cashâflow: Hitting finalâassembly now means the company can begin booking productionârevenue (e.g., componentâsales, serviceâcontracts) earlier than the âmidâ2026â window originally modeled. ⢠Capitalâexpenditure (CapEx): The lineâsetup cost that was budgeted for H2âŻ2025 can now be recognized as incurred, reducing the âfutureâCapExâ burden in later quarters. ⢠Risk mitigation: Early finalâassembly provides a realâworld data point for yieldâimprovement and supplyâchain resilience, lowering the uncertainty that was built into the 2026â2027 productionâramp forecasts. |
The companyâs forwardâlooking guidance (e.g., âtargeting 10âŻk eVTOLs/yr by 2030â) remains unchanged, but the confidence level around hitting the 2026â2027 milestones is higher because the first carriage is already in the finalâassembly stage. |
| Bottomâline takeaway | The start of finalâassembly of the first Tâcarriage is a validation that Jobyâs production timeline is on schedule (or slightly ahead) of its original forecasts. It marks the transition from development to a productionâready line, and it sets the foundation for a gradual capacity rampâup that is expected to follow the previously disclosed cadenceâinitial lowâvolume pilot builds, followed by a stepâwise increase to 4â6âŻunits per month in 2026 and eventually 10â12âŻunits per month by the lateâ2020s. | â |
How this fits into Jobyâs broader roadmap
| Year | Expected production milestone (as previously disclosed) | Current status (Q2âŻ2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 (H2) | Begin finalâassembly of first Tâcarriage | Started â milestone achieved |
| 2026 (Q1âQ2) | First flightâready Tâcarriage, start lowârate deliveries | On track to have the unit ready by Q3âQ4âŻ2025, enabling early 2026 deliveries |
| 2026 (H2) | Ramp to 4â6âŻunits/month (â120âŻunits/yr) | Line qualification ongoing; rampâup expected as per plan |
| 2027â2028 | 8â10âŻunits/month, scaling toward 10âŻk eVTOLs/yr by 2030 | Capacity buildâout proceeds per forecast |
Bottom line
- Production timeline: The first Tâcarriage is now moving through the finalâassembly stage, meaning Joby is likely to have a flightâready unit by Q3âQ4âŻ2025, which matches or slightly beats its earlier forecast for a Q4âŻ2025 readiness.
- Capacity rampâup: This milestone confirms the start of the production line and sets the stage for a stepâwise increase in output that aligns with the companyâs previously announced rampâup schedule (1â2 units/month â 4â6 units/month in 2026 â 10â12 units/month by 2028â2029).
- Forecast confidence: Because the first carriage is already in finalâassembly, the risk of missing the 2026â2027 serviceâlaunch targets is reduced, and the companyâs financial and cashâflow forecasts that assume a 2026 production start are now on a firmer footing.
Other Questions About This News
What was the market reaction to the live webcast and any management commentary on commercial passenger service timelines?
How do the reported revenue, operating expenses, and net loss compare to consensus estimates and to the prior quarter?
Did Joby disclose any updates on partnership agreements, technology licensing, or revenueâsharing models that could affect future cash flows?
What is the status of Joby's cash position and future financing needsâwill additional capital raises be required?
How will Joby's Q2 2025 earnings and cash burn affect its stock valuation and shortâterm price action?
What are the implications of any changes in capital expenditures or CAPEX guidance for the company's longâterm growth prospects?
How might the sentiment score of 20 and the earnings category influence institutional sentiment and analyst coverage for Joby?
Are there any macro or regulatory factors mentioned that could impact the commercial airâtaxi market outlook in 2025 and beyond?
How does Joby's progress on certification and fleet deployment compare to key competitors such as Lilium, Archer, and Volocopter?