How does Joby's progress on certification and fleet deployment compare to key competitors such as Lilium, Archer, and Volocopter? | JOBY (Aug 06, 2025) | Candlesense
JOBY

How does Joby's progress on certification and fleet deployment compare to key competitors such as Lilium, Archer, and Volocopter?

Joby Aviation – Where it stands in Q2 2025

Milestone (2025‑2027) Joby’s status (as of the Q2 2025 shareholder letter)
Final‑assembly line  Started – the company announced that it has commenced final assembly of the first production‑model “T” aircraft. This is the first step beyond prototype build‑up and signals that the design is “frozen” and ready for low‑volume production.
FAA certification progress  The letter notes that Joby is deep into the FAA’s Part 135/145 certification track, having completed most of the required flight‑test envelope and is on schedule for a type‑certificate request in late 2026. The company also reports successful completion of key safety‑critical tests (e.g., emergency‑landing, noise‑abatement, and battery‑thermal‑run‑away).
Fleet deployment target  Joby has outlined a 2027 commercial launch with an initial fleet of 50‑e‑VTOLs operating in the Los Angeles/Orange County corridor, followed by an expansion to ≈150 aircraft by 2029. The Q2 filing confirms that supply‑chain contracts for the air‑frame, power‑train, and battery packs are secured for the first 50 units.
Commercial‑service readiness  A “launch‑readiness” team has been formed, and the company is finalising airport‑partner agreements, pilot‑training curricula, and UAM‑traffic‑management integration with the FAA’s UTM program.

How Joby’s progress stacks up against its key competitors

Company Certification stage (2025‑2027) Production / fleet‑deployment timeline Notable recent milestones (Q2 2025) Relative position vs. Joby
Lilium (Germany) • Lilium Jet still in advanced prototype testing; a type‑certificate application is expected in 2026‑27 (EASA pathway).
• Completed a full‑scale flight‑test campaign of the 5‑seat jet in 2024‑25 but has not yet entered final‑assembly.		 • Plans a first‑fleet roll‑out of ~150 aircraft by 2029 (mainly European “regional‑UAM” routes).
• Has announced a “pre‑production” build‑line for 2027.		 • Q2 2025: announced completion of high‑altitude endurance testing and a new battery‑thermal‑management architecture. ~1‑2 years behind Joby – Lilium is still in the prototype‑validation phase, whereas Joby is already building production aircraft and targeting certification a year earlier.
Archer Aviation (U.S.) • Pursuing FAA Part 135/145 certification; type‑certificate filing expected in 2026 (same window as Joby).
• Completed full‑flight envelope testing of the “Maker” prototype in late 2024.		 • Targets commercial launch in 2027 with an initial fleet of 30‑40 aircraft (U.S. West‑Coast corridors).
• Announces a “low‑rate production” start in 2026.		 • Q2 2025: reported successful autonomous‑landing test at a certified UAS‑UAM test site and signed a partnership with a major U.S. airport for infrastructure. ** roughly on par with Joby on certification timing, but **behind on production – Archer has yet to start final assembly of a production‑model aircraft, whereas Joby has already begun that step.
Volocopter (Germany) • Working toward EASA certification for the “VoloCity” air‑taxi; type‑certificate expected in 2026 (subject to EU regulatory milestones).
• Completed type‑test flights for the 6‑seat version in 2024‑25.		 • Plans pilot‑city operations in Hamburg and Singapore in 2027 with an initial fleet of ~30‑40 aircraft, scaling to ≈200 by 2030. • Q2 2025: announced completion of the first production‑line pre‑serial unit and integration of a new high‑energy‑density battery pack. Slightly later than Joby – Volocopter has moved into low‑rate production but its certification pathway (EASA) is parallel rather than ahead; the fleet‑size target for 2027 is smaller than Joby’s.

Summary of the comparative picture

Aspect Joby (Q2 2025) Lilium Archer Volocopter
Stage of hardware Final‑assembly of first production aircraft (T‑model) underway Advanced prototypes, no production line yet Final‑assembly not started; still building “Maker” prototypes First low‑rate production units built
Certification timeline FAA type‑certificate request slated for late 2026 EASA type‑certificate expected 2026‑27, still earlier testing FAA type‑certificate expected 2026 EASA type‑certificate expected 2026
Fleet‑deployment target 2027 launch with ≈50 aircraft (scale to 150 by 2029) 2029 launch with ≈150 aircraft 2027 launch with 30‑40 aircraft (scale later) 2027 launch with 30‑40 aircraft (scale to 200 by 2030)
Overall head‑start ~1‑2 years ahead of Lilium, slightly ahead of Archer on production, ahead of Volocopter on the number of aircraft slated for the first commercial rollout.

Why Joby’s lead matters for investors and the UAM ecosystem

  1. Regulatory certainty – By moving into final assembly, Joby demonstrates that its design has passed the “frozen‑configuration” gate, a prerequisite for the FAA’s formal certification track. This reduces regulatory risk relative to competitors still in prototype validation.

  2. Supply‑chain lock‑in – Joby’s Q2 filing confirms signed contracts for air‑frame sub‑assemblies, high‑energy battery packs, and power‑train components sufficient for the first 50 aircraft. Competitors are still negotiating or have only provisional supply agreements.

  3. Commercial‑service readiness – The simultaneous buildup of pilot‑training programs, airport‑partner agreements, and UTM (UAV Traffic Management) integration positions Joby to activate revenue‑generating operations in 2027, whereas Archer and Volocopter will likely have a narrower initial fleet and a later scale‑up.

  4. Funding and market perception – A production‑ready status typically unlocks larger equity and debt financing rounds, as investors view the risk profile as “pre‑revenue but near‑commercial”. Lilium’s longer timeline (fleet not until 2029) has already translated into a higher cash‑burn rate and a need for additional financing rounds.

Bottom line

  • Joby is the most advanced of the four companies on the path from prototype to commercial service. It has already begun final assembly of its first production e‑VTOL, is on schedule for a 2026 FAA type‑certificate filing, and plans to launch a 50‑aircraft fleet in 2027.
  • Lilium is still a few steps behind, focused on prototype testing and not yet in production; its commercial fleet won’t appear until around 2029.
  • Archer is roughly on the same certification timetable but lags on hardware production, still needing to start final assembly of a production‑model aircraft.
  • Volocopter is also moving toward low‑rate production and a 2026 certification, but its initial fleet size for 2027 is smaller than Joby’s and its timeline to larger scale‑up is later.

Consequently, Joby’s certification and fleet‑deployment trajectory currently outpaces Lilium, Archer, and Volocopter, giving it a competitive advantage in being the first to launch a sizable commercial air‑taxi service in the United States. This lead could translate into market‑share capture, stronger brand recognition, and a more favorable financing environment as the urban‑air‑mobility market matures.

Other Questions About This News

What was the market reaction to the live webcast and any management commentary on commercial passenger service timelines? How do the reported revenue, operating expenses, and net loss compare to consensus estimates and to the prior quarter? Did Joby disclose any updates on partnership agreements, technology licensing, or revenue‑sharing models that could affect future cash flows? What is the status of Joby's cash position and future financing needs—will additional capital raises be required? How will Joby's Q2 2025 earnings and cash burn affect its stock valuation and short‑term price action? What does the commencement of final assembly of the first T‑carriage indicate about its production timeline and capacity ramp‑up compared to forecasts? What are the implications of any changes in capital expenditures or CAPEX guidance for the company's long‑term growth prospects? How might the sentiment score of 20 and the earnings category influence institutional sentiment and analyst coverage for Joby? Are there any macro or regulatory factors mentioned that could impact the commercial air‑taxi market outlook in 2025 and beyond?