Will the meeting provide any insight into the bank's exposure to interest rate changes and its interest rate risk management?

Will the meeting shed light on Itaú’s interest‑rate exposure?

Very likely – even though the invitation only mentions “business developments and their impact on UX,” the agenda for an ITAÚ Day with senior executives traditionally includes a deep‑dive into the bank’s earnings outlook, net interest income (NII) trends, loan‑portfolio repricing and funding strategy. Brazil’s policy rate (Selic) remains above 13 % and the central bank is signaling a slower pace of cuts, so analysts will press the bank on how its loan‑book (especially variable‑rate versus fixed‑rate mix) and its funding costs will react. Expect the CFO or the head of Treasury to detail the bank’s interest‑rate risk‑management framework (duration gaps, natural hedges, derivatives usage and capital buffers) and to provide guidance on NII growth versus expectations.

Trading implications

- If management quantifies a modest NII drag (e.g., ‑2‑3 % YoY) and signals a large duration gap, the market could penalise ITUB, pushing the stock toward its near‑term support around R$ 27‑28. A short‑term bearish position (e.g., 200‑day moving‑average break, put spreads) would be justified.

- Conversely, if the team highlights a strong repricing pipeline, effective hedging and a resilient deposit base, investors may view the bank as well‑positioned against a sticky Selic environment. This would likely lift the shares toward the resistance zone near R$ 31‑32, creating a buying opportunity on a break‑out or a bullish call‑spread.

Actionable tip: Monitor the live webcast for any explicit NII guidance, loan‑mix shifts, or hedging ratios. A clear forward‑looking statement on interest‑rate risk (especially a quantitative “duration‑adjusted net interest margin” figure) should be taken as a catalyst – > buy on bullish commentary, < sell/short on a negative outlook. Keep an eye on the post‑event market reaction and the 1‑month RSI; a move above 55 with volume confirmation would reinforce a long bias, while a drop below 45 would support a short stance.