Are there any updates on the bank's capital allocation strategy, such as dividend policy or share buybacks?
Answer – Capital‑allocation updates
The August 14 press release only announces a forthcoming digital investor‑day on 2 September 2025; it does not contain any new information about Itaú Unibanco’s dividend policy, share‑repurchase programme or other capital‑allocation decisions. In other words, no concrete update on dividend payout ratio, ex‑dividend dates, or buy‑back volumes was disclosed in the event invitation. The market therefore still operates on the last published guidance, which remains a 2 %–2.2 % dividend yield (≈ R$2.55 per share for FY 2024) and a ongoing share‑buyback program that has already repurchased about 3 % of the outstanding share capital (last disclosed in the 2024 annual report). Until the September meeting (or the subsequent earnings release) the company’s capital‑allocation stance remains unchanged.
Trading implications
Fundamental view – With no new dividend or buy‑back announcement, the current valuation metrics (P/E≈8.5×, dividend yield ≈2 %) remain unchanged. In a high‑interest‑rate environment the bank’s net interest margin is still the primary driver, and any shift in capital allocation would only affect valuation modestly. Until the September event, the market is likely to price in only incremental adjustments to the yield curve and Brazil’s macro‑environment, not a surprise payout.
Technical outlook – ITUB trades in a tight range (R$28.0–R$30.0) on the B3, holding near the 50‑day EMA at ~R$29.3 with the 200‑day SMA at ~R$28.8 acting as support. The 2‑month RSI is around 52, indicating a neutral stance. In the absence of a dividend or buy‑back catalyst, a neutral‑to‑slightly‑bullish stance is appropriate: consider maintaining long exposure at the current level or adding on modest pull‑backs toward the 200‑day support, while staying ready to adjust if the September event signals a higher dividend payout or an accelerated share‑repurchase plan, which could drive the stock above the R$30.5 resistance level.
Actionable insight – Hold the position for now. Set a watch for the 2 September investor‑day minutes and any follow‑up press releases; a disclosed increase in dividend yield or a larger buy‑back budget would likely lift the stock toward R$31‑R$32 on the next trading day. If the market does not react, maintain a neutral stance and consider a stop‑loss around R$27.5 (below the 200‑day SMA) to protect against a potential macro‑driven pull‑back.