How will the exercise of the overâallotment option affect the overall supply and liquidity of HVMC shares?
The underâwritersâ overâallotment option added another 3âŻmillion ClassâŻA shares (and the associated 1.5âŻmillion halfâwarrants) to the IPO. In other words, the total HVâMC float is now roughly 26âŻmillion shares instead of the 23âŻmillion that would have existed without the option.
Supply impact â the extra 3âŻM shares represent a ~13âŻ% increase in the postâIPO share count, which dilutes the original offering and adds a modest ânewâissueâ pressure on the price as the market digests the larger pool of tradable stock.
Liquidity impact â because the overâallotment shares are placed in the hands of the underâwriters (who typically sell them into the market quickly), the daily trading volume and the depth of the order book are expected to rise. A bigger float usually narrows bidâask spreads, makes it easier for largeâblock trades to be executed without moving the market, and reduces shortâterm price volatility.
Trading implication â the immediate effect should be a modest, shortârun price concession as the new supply is absorbed, but the enhanced liquidity makes HVMC a more attractive shortâterm play for both institutional and retail participants. Traders can look for a tightening of spreads and a bump in volume over the next 1â2âŻweeks; a breakout to the upside will be more sustainable once the market has adjusted to the larger float, while any sharp downside may be limited by the improved depth. Keep an eye on the warrantâexercise timeline (the halfâwarrants will become whole warrants when the units split), as that could add another wave of supply later in the year.