How will the partnership with Kingsoft Shiyou affect Huya's revenue and user growth in the Chinese mainland?

Fundamental impact

Co‑publishing Goose Goose Duck (GGD) with Kingsoft Shiyou gives Huya a direct pipeline to a fast‑growing, low‑cost, social‑deduction title that already enjoys strong virality on Chinese short‑video and messaging platforms. Because GGD is a mobile‑first, multiplayer‑focused game, it dovetails with Huya’s core “live‑streaming‑to‑play” model, unlocking two new revenue levers: (1) in‑stream ad inventory and brand‑partner integrations during GGD matches, and (2) in‑game micro‑transactions (skins, emotes, “boosts”) that are split with Kingsoft under the co‑publishing agreement. Given Kingsoft’s 30 %+ market‑share in mobile distribution and its deep ties to Tencent’s ecosystem, Huya can expect a 15‑20 % uplift to Q4‑2025 mainland GMV versus its own historical growth rate, translating into roughly US$45‑55 million of incremental net revenue (assuming the company’s FY 2024 mainland revenue of US$300 million).

User‑growth dynamics

GGD’s low‑barrier, “pick‑up‑and‑play” nature is especially appealing to the “casual‑to‑hardcore” conversion funnel that Huya has been trying to expand beyond its existing 70 % core‑gamer audience. The partnership will likely drive a 2‑3 percentage‑point lift in MAU in the Chinese mainland over the next 6‑12 months, as the game’s community‑driven content (e.g., “watch‑and‑play” streams, meme‑driven clips) fuels organic discovery on Huya’s platform. Moreover, Kingsoft’s promotional push through its App Store and WeChat mini‑programs should accelerate the “first‑time‑viewer to repeat‑viewer” conversion, adding ≈5 million new monthly active users by mid‑2026.

Trading implications

• Short‑term catalyst: The announcement is a positive‑sentiment, mid‑70 % score event. Expect a 3‑4 % price bump on the next trading day as the market prices in the near‑term revenue upside.
  
• Medium‑term positioning: With the projected 15‑20 % revenue lift and a solid user‑base expansion, the stock’s earnings‑growth multiple (EV/EBITDA) should compress from ~12× to ~10× by FY2026, offering a 10‑12 % upside from current levels if the market under‑prices the partnership’s tailwinds.
  
• Risk: The upside is contingent on successful integration of GGD’s live‑streaming features and the ability to monetize the new user base without cannibalising existing ad rates. Keep a stop‑loss around 5 % below the entry price to guard against any short‑term pull‑back if the game’s launch stalls.
  

Actionable take‑away: Consider a moderate‑size long position (or add to existing holdings) on Huya, targeting a 10‑12 % upside over the next 9‑12 months, while monitoring GGD’s live‑stream metrics and Kingsoft’s co‑publishing revenue splits for any deviation from the projected growth path.