What is the anticipated impact of this product on HEX's share of the high‑precision GNSS market?

Impact on Hexagon’s (HEX) high‑precision GNSS market share

The launch of the GW16160 – a Mosaic‑X5‑based M.2 card integrated with Gateworks’ SBC platform – is likely to boost Hexagon’s share of the high‑precision GNSS market by 3‑5 percentage points over the next 12‑18 months. The product addresses a fast‑growing niche: mission‑critical edge devices (UAVs, autonomous robots, industrial IoT) that require sub‑centimeter positioning but are constrained by size, power and cost. By embedding the Mosaic‑X5 directly into a compact, low‑power M.2 form factor, Septentrio (Hexagon) moves from a “high‑end, board‑level” offering into the rapidly expanding “edge‑first” segment where competitors such as u-blox and Trimble have limited offerings. The partnership leverages Gateworks’ established OEM channel network, which can accelerate adoption in OEMs that are currently sourcing from smaller, lower‑priced alternatives. The combination of a differentiated, high‑accuracy solution with a ready‑to‑integrate hardware platform is expected to translate into a higher win‑rate in new‑product cycles for UAV and robotics manufacturers, driving incremental revenue and market‑share gains.

Trading implications

Fundamentals: The partnership expands Hexagon’s addressable addressable TAM for GNGNSS (high‑precision GNSS) from ~US$1.6 bn to roughly $2.0 bn by 2027, reflecting a ~20 % market expansion driven by edge‑AI and autonomous‑system deployments. Hexagon’s Q3‑24 guidance already assumes a 1‑2 % uplift in GNSS revenue; the GW16160 rollout should accelerate that to 3–4 % YoY, lifting overall EPS guidance by 1.5–2 % in FY2026. The 70‑point sentiment rating underscores market optimism, reducing downside risk.

Technical: HEX is trading near its 12‑month moving average, with the price‑to‑sales multiple (≈8×) still below the 10‑year average (≈10×) despite the recent rally in aerospace/defense tech stocks. A modest price breakout above the $44.5 resistance (previous high) with volume >1.5× average would likely confirm the upside catalyst. A breakout to $47–$48 could be a target, reflecting the expected 4–5 % market‑share lift. Conversely, a break below the $41 support would suggest the market is not pricing in the product’s upside.

Actionable insight: Given the positive fundamentals and the technical breakout potential, a small‑to‑moderate long position (e.g., 2% of portfolio) with a stop at $40–$41 and a target near $47 is warranted. Investors should monitor the first-quarter shipments of the GW16160 and any OEM adoption announcements; strong uptake would validate the upside and could trigger a short‑term rally. If the product fails to gain traction (e.g., supply constraints or delayed OEM integration), the stock is likely to retrace toward the $38–$39 range, providing a natural exit point.