What macro‑economic factors (e.g., energy transition policies, hydrogen infrastructure spending) could influence the company's growth trajectory?

Macro‑economic backdrop

Hexagon Composites is a pure‑play on the clean‑gaseous‑energy value chain – mainly hydrogen, compressed natural gas (CNG) and other zero‑emission gases. Its growth will be driven by the speed and scale of the global energy‑transition agenda:

• Hydrogen‑road‑map funding – The EU’s “Fit‑for‑55” package, the US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IRA) and Japan’s Hydrogen Strategy all earmark billions of euros/dollars for hydrogen production, storage and refuelling‑station roll‑outs. Each $1 bn of dedicated hydrogen‑infrastructure spend typically translates into 1–2 % incremental demand for high‑pressure composite cylinders, a core product for Hexagon.

• Carbon‑pricing & emissions‑regulation – Expanding EU ETS and emerging carbon‑price schemes in China, South Korea and Canada raise the cost of fossil‑fuel transport, nudging heavy‑truck, bus and maritime operators toward CNG or H₂ solutions – directly feeding Hexagon’s order pipeline.

• Renewable‑energy‑linked incentives – Feed‑in‑tariffs, tax‑credit extensions for offshore wind and solar coupled with electrolyser deployment create a “green‑hydrogen” ecosystem that needs safe, lightweight storage. Policy‑driven electrolyser capacity growth (projected to hit 30 GW by 2030 in the EU) is a leading indicator for Hexagon’s medium‑term demand.

• Macroeconomic headwinds – Higher real‑interest rates and inflationary pressure on raw‑material costs (e.g., carbon‑fiber, resin) can compress margins, while supply‑chain bottlenecks in resin and winding capacity may delay deliveries.

Trading implications

The Q2 revenue drop (NOK 674 m vs. NOK 1 150 m a year earlier) has left the stock heavily discounted (sentiment –55). On the technical side the price is testing the 20‑day EMA and is oversold on the RSI (≈30), suggesting a short‑term bounce if any of the above policy catalysts materialise.

• Short‑term play: Consider a long position on pull‑backs to the 20‑day EMA with a tight stop just below the recent low (≈NOK 120). The upside is capped by the next policy‑announcement window (EU Hydrogen Strategy Q3, US IRA rollout Q4).

• Medium‑term outlook: If EU and US hydrogen‑infrastructure budgets stay on track, the fundamentals support a 2–3 % upside over the next 6‑12 months as order flow lifts. A stop‑loss at 15 % below the entry protects against macro‑risk (rate hikes, raw‑material cost spikes).

In short, the company’s growth trajectory is tightly linked to the pace of hydrogen‑infrastructure spending and carbon‑pricing regimes. Traders should monitor policy releases (EU “Fit‑for‑55” updates, US IRA hydrogen grants) and macro data (interest‑rate outlook, resin price indices) to time entries on the current oversold price level.