Hexagon Composites’ second‑quarter revenue fell to NOK 674 m from NOK 1.15 bn a year earlier – a 41 % slide that wipes out more than half of the top‑line growth that had underpinned the stock’s recent valuation premium. At the same time, the company’s EBIT margin has compressed from roughly 12 % to under 6 % as fixed‑costs remain high while order intake slows. Assuming the 2025‑2026 earnings guidance is trimmed in line with the revenue shock (a 30‑35 % cut to FY‑2025 EBITDA), the forward EV/EBITDA multiple is likely to fall from the current ~8.5× to 5‑6× – a level more in line with peers in the industrial equipment space. Using a conservative 6× EV/EBITDA on the revised FY‑2025 EBITDA of NOK 350 m yields an enterprise value of around NOK 2.1 bn, implying a post‑adjustment equity value of roughly NOK 1.6 bn (≈NOK 120 per share). This is 25‑30 % below the current market price, suggesting a downward pressure on the target price to the NOK 115‑120 range.
From a technical standpoint, the stock has broken beneath its 50‑day moving average and is testing a support zone around NOK 115, which coincides with the revised valuation ceiling. A confirmed break below this level could trigger short‑term bearish momentum and attract short‑covering rallies if the market re‑prices the earnings outlook. Conversely, any indication of a rebound in order flow – especially from the rapidly expanding hydrogen‑storage market – could provide a catalyst to retest the 200‑day moving average (≈NOK 140) and re‑inflate multiples. Actionable insight: maintain a cautious stance; consider scaling into short positions near NOK 120 with tight stops above NOK 130, while keeping an eye on forthcoming management commentary. A material improvement in order backlog or a strategic partnership would be required to re‑raise price targets toward the previous NOK 150‑160 range.