Answer
The upcoming PATHFINDER 2 read‑out at ESMO 2025 is likely to tighten analyst expectations for Grail (GRAIL). The Q2 release already showed a solid 21 % YoY revenue lift and a 29 % jump in test volume, confirming that the Galleri platform is scaling. However, analysts still price the stock on the assumption that the “next‑generation” data will be the primary growth catalyst. When the first 25,000 patient results are disclosed, any signal of improved sensitivity, earlier cancer detection, or expanded indication coverage will force analysts to upgrade their revenue forecasts and push the forward‑looking multiples (e.g., EV/Rev, P/E) higher. Conversely, a neutral or modest incremental benefit will keep the current “steady‑state” outlook intact and may even temper optimism that the platform can sustain the current growth rate.
From a technical standpoint, GRAIL’s shares have been trading in a tight range around the $12–$14 band since the Q2 beat, with the 20‑day SMA hovering near the upper edge of the range. If PATHFINDER 2 data beat expectations, we could see a breakout above the $14 resistance, retesting the 20‑day SMA as a new support level and potentially drawing momentum from the broader biotech rally. If the data are underwhelming, the stock may test the $12 support and could be vulnerable to a short‑term pull‑back toward the 50‑day SMA (~$11.5).
Actionable take‑away
- Bullish scenario: Anticipate a +5‑10 % price move on a positive PATHFINDER 2 read‑out. Consider a small‑position long entry near the current price with a stop just below the $12 support, targeting a breakout to $15–$16 on the upside.
- Bearish scenario: If the data are tepid, look for selling pressure toward the $12 support. A short‑position with a stop at $13.50 can capture a 3‑5 % decline, especially if the market re‑prices the growth trajectory lower.
Overall, the PATHFINDER 2 results will be a pivotal catalyst that can either sharpen the upside narrative for Grail or reinforce a more conservative growth outlook. Keep the event on the calendar (early October) and be ready to adjust positions as the data roll out.